CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower ant...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://doaj.org/article/461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 2023-09-05T13:22:26+02:00 CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C Eleanor J Burke Sarah E Chadburn Chris Huntingford Chris D Jones 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://doaj.org/article/461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 2, p 024024 (2018) permafrost carbon budget carbon climate model feedback Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 2023-08-13T00:37:34Z Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO _2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity climate model (including climate response and process uncertainty) and a stabilization target of 2 °C, show that including the permafrost carbon pool in the model increases the land carbon emissions at stabilization by between 0.09 and 0.19 Gt C year ^−1 (10th to 90th percentile). These emissions are only slightly reduced to between 0.08 and 0.16 Gt C year ^−1 (10th to 90th percentile) when considering 1.5 °C stabilization targets. This suggests that uncertainties caused by the differences in stabilization target are small compared with those associated with model parameterisation uncertainty. Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60–100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) Environmental Research Letters 13 2 024024 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost carbon budget carbon climate model feedback Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost carbon budget carbon climate model feedback Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Eleanor J Burke Sarah E Chadburn Chris Huntingford Chris D Jones CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
topic_facet |
permafrost carbon budget carbon climate model feedback Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO _2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity climate model (including climate response and process uncertainty) and a stabilization target of 2 °C, show that including the permafrost carbon pool in the model increases the land carbon emissions at stabilization by between 0.09 and 0.19 Gt C year ^−1 (10th to 90th percentile). These emissions are only slightly reduced to between 0.08 and 0.16 Gt C year ^−1 (10th to 90th percentile) when considering 1.5 °C stabilization targets. This suggests that uncertainties caused by the differences in stabilization target are small compared with those associated with model parameterisation uncertainty. Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60–100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eleanor J Burke Sarah E Chadburn Chris Huntingford Chris D Jones |
author_facet |
Eleanor J Burke Sarah E Chadburn Chris Huntingford Chris D Jones |
author_sort |
Eleanor J Burke |
title |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_short |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_full |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_fullStr |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_full_unstemmed |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_sort |
co2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °c |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://doaj.org/article/461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Jules |
geographic_facet |
Jules |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 2, p 024024 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/461a448e8fad4424b60abf1317208185 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024024 |
_version_ |
1776202941986766848 |