Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration
We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO 3 2− ]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [C...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:449784e8b849496c875e8a794c3aa5d1 2023-05-15T17:30:07+02:00 Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration N. S. Lovenduski M. C. Long K. Lindsay 2015-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 https://doaj.org/article/449784e8b849496c875e8a794c3aa5d1 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/6321/2015/bg-12-6321-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 https://doaj.org/article/449784e8b849496c875e8a794c3aa5d1 Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 21, Pp 6321-6335 (2015) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 2022-12-31T13:04:01Z We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO 3 2− ]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO 3 2− ] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO 3 2− ] in the tropical Pacific and at the boundaries between the subtropical and subpolar gyres in the Northern Hemisphere, and relatively low interannual variability in the centers of the subtropical gyres and in the Southern Ocean. Statistical analysis of modeled [CO 3 2− ] variance and autocorrelation suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in the saturation state of aragonite (Ω aragonite ) are already or nearly detectable at the sustained, open-ocean time series sites, whereas several decades of observations are required to detect anthropogenic trends in Ω aragonite in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and North Atlantic. The detection timescale for anthropogenic trends in pH is shorter than that for Ω aragonite , due to smaller noise-to-signal ratios and lower autocorrelation in pH. In the tropical Pacific, the leading mode of surface [CO 3 2− ] variability is primarily driven by variations in the vertical advection of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In the North Pacific, surface [CO 3 2− ] variability is caused by circulation-driven variations in surface DIC and strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with peak spectral power at 20–30-year periods. North Atlantic [CO 3 2− ] variability is also driven by variations in surface DIC, and exhibits weak correlations with both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. As the scientific community seeks to detect the anthropogenic influence on ocean carbonate chemistry, these results will aid the interpretation of trends calculated from spatially ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Southern Ocean Pacific Biogeosciences 12 21 6321 6335 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 N. S. Lovenduski M. C. Long K. Lindsay Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO 3 2− ]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO 3 2− ] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO 3 2− ] in the tropical Pacific and at the boundaries between the subtropical and subpolar gyres in the Northern Hemisphere, and relatively low interannual variability in the centers of the subtropical gyres and in the Southern Ocean. Statistical analysis of modeled [CO 3 2− ] variance and autocorrelation suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in the saturation state of aragonite (Ω aragonite ) are already or nearly detectable at the sustained, open-ocean time series sites, whereas several decades of observations are required to detect anthropogenic trends in Ω aragonite in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and North Atlantic. The detection timescale for anthropogenic trends in pH is shorter than that for Ω aragonite , due to smaller noise-to-signal ratios and lower autocorrelation in pH. In the tropical Pacific, the leading mode of surface [CO 3 2− ] variability is primarily driven by variations in the vertical advection of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In the North Pacific, surface [CO 3 2− ] variability is caused by circulation-driven variations in surface DIC and strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with peak spectral power at 20–30-year periods. North Atlantic [CO 3 2− ] variability is also driven by variations in surface DIC, and exhibits weak correlations with both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. As the scientific community seeks to detect the anthropogenic influence on ocean carbonate chemistry, these results will aid the interpretation of trends calculated from spatially ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
N. S. Lovenduski M. C. Long K. Lindsay |
author_facet |
N. S. Lovenduski M. C. Long K. Lindsay |
author_sort |
N. S. Lovenduski |
title |
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
title_short |
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
title_full |
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
title_fullStr |
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
title_sort |
natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 https://doaj.org/article/449784e8b849496c875e8a794c3aa5d1 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 21, Pp 6321-6335 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/6321/2015/bg-12-6321-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 https://doaj.org/article/449784e8b849496c875e8a794c3aa5d1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
21 |
container_start_page |
6321 |
op_container_end_page |
6335 |
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1766125913391497216 |