Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming
We develop a moving-mesh permafrost model that contains a ground subsidence computation module to estimate the effects of ground subsidence on permafrost simulation under different warming scenarios. Including the ground subsidence process in the permafrost simulation produces only a relatively smal...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:445d2ab9413e4d0c85f95297349088ed 2024-02-27T08:32:28+00:00 Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming Zhe Sun Lin Zhao Guojie Hu Huayun Zhou Shibo Liu Yongping Qiao Erji Du Defu Zou Changwei Xie 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010012 https://doaj.org/article/445d2ab9413e4d0c85f95297349088ed EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/12 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15010012 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/445d2ab9413e4d0c85f95297349088ed Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 1, p 12 (2023) permafrost ground subsidence moving-mesh model climate warming scenarios Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010012 2024-01-28T01:46:32Z We develop a moving-mesh permafrost model that contains a ground subsidence computation module to estimate the effects of ground subsidence on permafrost simulation under different warming scenarios. Including the ground subsidence process in the permafrost simulation produces only a relatively small improvement in the simulation performance of the ground temperature field, as validated by observations from two sites on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It is shown that ignoring ground subsidence tends to achieve a larger active layer thickness (ALT) but a smaller original thickness of permafrost that has thawed when simulating permafrost changes in a warming climate. The heat consumed by permafrost changes will be underestimated in simulations that do not consider ground subsidence. The effects that ground subsidence exerts within the permafrost simulation are clearly demonstrated under a strong warming scenario, which will influence the global energy budget. Projections indicate that the permafrost in the continuous permafrost area of the QTP may be close to the phase transition temperature to become zero thermal gradients in 2030–2040 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and there will be a great risk of ground subsidence by that stage. For permafrost regions with rich ground ice, the downward propagating temperature signals caused by ground subsidence are more attenuated. However, the heat calculation error will be larger in a simulation that does not consider ground subsidence there. This study quantifies the effects of ground subsidence, which can provide a better understanding of the permafrost thaw and energy budget of the QTP. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Ice permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 15 1 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost ground subsidence moving-mesh model climate warming scenarios Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost ground subsidence moving-mesh model climate warming scenarios Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Zhe Sun Lin Zhao Guojie Hu Huayun Zhou Shibo Liu Yongping Qiao Erji Du Defu Zou Changwei Xie Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
topic_facet |
permafrost ground subsidence moving-mesh model climate warming scenarios Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
We develop a moving-mesh permafrost model that contains a ground subsidence computation module to estimate the effects of ground subsidence on permafrost simulation under different warming scenarios. Including the ground subsidence process in the permafrost simulation produces only a relatively small improvement in the simulation performance of the ground temperature field, as validated by observations from two sites on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It is shown that ignoring ground subsidence tends to achieve a larger active layer thickness (ALT) but a smaller original thickness of permafrost that has thawed when simulating permafrost changes in a warming climate. The heat consumed by permafrost changes will be underestimated in simulations that do not consider ground subsidence. The effects that ground subsidence exerts within the permafrost simulation are clearly demonstrated under a strong warming scenario, which will influence the global energy budget. Projections indicate that the permafrost in the continuous permafrost area of the QTP may be close to the phase transition temperature to become zero thermal gradients in 2030–2040 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and there will be a great risk of ground subsidence by that stage. For permafrost regions with rich ground ice, the downward propagating temperature signals caused by ground subsidence are more attenuated. However, the heat calculation error will be larger in a simulation that does not consider ground subsidence there. This study quantifies the effects of ground subsidence, which can provide a better understanding of the permafrost thaw and energy budget of the QTP. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhe Sun Lin Zhao Guojie Hu Huayun Zhou Shibo Liu Yongping Qiao Erji Du Defu Zou Changwei Xie |
author_facet |
Zhe Sun Lin Zhao Guojie Hu Huayun Zhou Shibo Liu Yongping Qiao Erji Du Defu Zou Changwei Xie |
author_sort |
Zhe Sun |
title |
Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
title_short |
Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
title_full |
Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
title_fullStr |
Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming |
title_sort |
effects of ground subsidence on permafrost simulation related to climate warming |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010012 https://doaj.org/article/445d2ab9413e4d0c85f95297349088ed |
genre |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 1, p 12 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/12 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15010012 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/445d2ab9413e4d0c85f95297349088ed |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010012 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
12 |
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1792044251026030592 |