Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran
Objective: To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series m...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:43f06bf2cb5a442d97bdbfec66fe0ed8 2023-05-15T15:09:31+02:00 Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran Marjan Zare Abbas Rezaianzadeh Hamidreza Tabatabaee Hossain Faramarzi Mohsen Aliakbarpour Mostafa Ebrahimi 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-1691.260395 https://doaj.org/article/43f06bf2cb5a442d97bdbfec66fe0ed8 EN eng Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications http://www.apjtb.org/article.asp?issn=2221-1691;year=2019;volume=9;issue=6;spage=232;epage=239;aulast=Zare https://doaj.org/toc/2221-1691 2221-1691 doi:10.4103/2221-1691.260395 https://doaj.org/article/43f06bf2cb5a442d97bdbfec66fe0ed8 Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 232-239 (2019) early warning system cutaneous leishmaniasis disease outbreaks Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-1691.260395 2022-12-31T13:11:13Z Objective: To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models. Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/ Bayesian information criterion statistics, residual analysis, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function sample/model. To decide on an outbreak, four endemic scores were evaluated including mean, median, mean + 2 standard deviations, and median + interquartile range of the past five years. Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included, and there were no exclusion criteria. Results: Regarding four statistically significant endemic values, four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016. The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps: (i) to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak, (ii) to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future, (iii) to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks, and (iv) to set an alarm to health managers. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 9 6 232 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
early warning system cutaneous leishmaniasis disease outbreaks Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
spellingShingle |
early warning system cutaneous leishmaniasis disease outbreaks Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Marjan Zare Abbas Rezaianzadeh Hamidreza Tabatabaee Hossain Faramarzi Mohsen Aliakbarpour Mostafa Ebrahimi Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
topic_facet |
early warning system cutaneous leishmaniasis disease outbreaks Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
description |
Objective: To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models. Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/ Bayesian information criterion statistics, residual analysis, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function sample/model. To decide on an outbreak, four endemic scores were evaluated including mean, median, mean + 2 standard deviations, and median + interquartile range of the past five years. Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included, and there were no exclusion criteria. Results: Regarding four statistically significant endemic values, four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016. The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps: (i) to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak, (ii) to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future, (iii) to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks, and (iv) to set an alarm to health managers. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marjan Zare Abbas Rezaianzadeh Hamidreza Tabatabaee Hossain Faramarzi Mohsen Aliakbarpour Mostafa Ebrahimi |
author_facet |
Marjan Zare Abbas Rezaianzadeh Hamidreza Tabatabaee Hossain Faramarzi Mohsen Aliakbarpour Mostafa Ebrahimi |
author_sort |
Marjan Zare |
title |
Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
title_short |
Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
title_full |
Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
title_fullStr |
Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
title_full_unstemmed |
Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran |
title_sort |
establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in fars province, iran |
publisher |
Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-1691.260395 https://doaj.org/article/43f06bf2cb5a442d97bdbfec66fe0ed8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 232-239 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://www.apjtb.org/article.asp?issn=2221-1691;year=2019;volume=9;issue=6;spage=232;epage=239;aulast=Zare https://doaj.org/toc/2221-1691 2221-1691 doi:10.4103/2221-1691.260395 https://doaj.org/article/43f06bf2cb5a442d97bdbfec66fe0ed8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-1691.260395 |
container_title |
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
232 |
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