Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)
The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain signific...
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2023
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:432a588f1d9b4e6fafaca84d9554507a 2023-12-10T09:49:38+01:00 Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) O. G. Pollard N. L. M. Barlow L. J. Gregoire N. Gomez V. Cartelle J. C. Ely L. C. Astfalck 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 https://doaj.org/article/432a588f1d9b4e6fafaca84d9554507a EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4751/2023/tc-17-4751-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/432a588f1d9b4e6fafaca84d9554507a The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 4751-4777 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 2023-11-12T01:36:53Z The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM) by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal shear stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the Last Deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48±8 m sea-level equivalent (SLE). We find that the Barents–Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24±8 m SLE while the British–Irish sector volume of 1.7±0.2 m SLE is the smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Kara Sea The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Kara Sea The Cryosphere 17 11 4751 4777 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 O. G. Pollard N. L. M. Barlow L. J. Gregoire N. Gomez V. Cartelle J. C. Ely L. C. Astfalck Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM) by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal shear stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the Last Deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48±8 m sea-level equivalent (SLE). We find that the Barents–Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24±8 m SLE while the British–Irish sector volume of 1.7±0.2 m SLE is the smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O. G. Pollard N. L. M. Barlow L. J. Gregoire N. Gomez V. Cartelle J. C. Ely L. C. Astfalck |
author_facet |
O. G. Pollard N. L. M. Barlow L. J. Gregoire N. Gomez V. Cartelle J. C. Ely L. C. Astfalck |
author_sort |
O. G. Pollard |
title |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
title_short |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
title_full |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6) |
title_sort |
quantifying the uncertainty in the eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the penultimate glacial maximum (marine isotope stage 6) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 https://doaj.org/article/432a588f1d9b4e6fafaca84d9554507a |
geographic |
Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Kara Sea |
genre |
Ice Sheet Kara Sea The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet Kara Sea The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 4751-4777 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4751/2023/tc-17-4751-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/432a588f1d9b4e6fafaca84d9554507a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4751 |
op_container_end_page |
4777 |
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1784894177870348288 |