Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times
Abstract Background As controlling malaria transmission remains a public-health challenge in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the National Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-MALARIA) has registered malaria notifications for over fifteen years helping in the decision-making on control and elimination....
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:42c225949d4c4987b6d8d7d35f3455a6 2023-05-15T15:10:32+02:00 Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times Mario J. C. Ayala Naiara C. M. Valiati Leonardo S. Bastos Daniel A. M. Villela 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y https://doaj.org/article/42c225949d4c4987b6d8d7d35f3455a6 EN eng BMC https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/42c225949d4c4987b6d8d7d35f3455a6 Malaria Journal, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2023) Malaria Reporting times Health surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y 2023-02-19T01:47:53Z Abstract Background As controlling malaria transmission remains a public-health challenge in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the National Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-MALARIA) has registered malaria notifications for over fifteen years helping in the decision-making on control and elimination. As a surveillance database, the system is prone to reporting delays, and knowledge about reporting patterns is essential in decisions. Methods This study contains an analysis of temporal and state trends of reporting times in a total of 1,580,617 individual malaria reports from January 2010 to December 2020, applying procedures for statistical distribution fitting. A nowcasting technique was applied to show an estimation of number of cases using a statistical model of reporting delays. Results Reporting delays increased over time for the states of Amazonas, Rondônia, Roraima, and Pará. Amapá has maintained a similar reporting delay pattern, while Acre decreased reporting delay between 2010 and 2020. Predictions were more accurate in states with lower reporting delays. The temporal evolution of reporting delays only showed a decrease in malaria reports in Acre from 2010 to 2020. Conclusion Malaria notifications may take days or weeks to enter the national surveillance database. The reporting times are likely to impact incidence estimation over periods when data is incomplete, whilst the impact of delays becomes smaller for retrospective analysis. Short-term assessments for the estimation of malaria incidence from the malaria control programme must deal with reporting delays. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 22 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Malaria Reporting times Health surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Malaria Reporting times Health surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Mario J. C. Ayala Naiara C. M. Valiati Leonardo S. Bastos Daniel A. M. Villela Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
topic_facet |
Malaria Reporting times Health surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background As controlling malaria transmission remains a public-health challenge in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the National Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-MALARIA) has registered malaria notifications for over fifteen years helping in the decision-making on control and elimination. As a surveillance database, the system is prone to reporting delays, and knowledge about reporting patterns is essential in decisions. Methods This study contains an analysis of temporal and state trends of reporting times in a total of 1,580,617 individual malaria reports from January 2010 to December 2020, applying procedures for statistical distribution fitting. A nowcasting technique was applied to show an estimation of number of cases using a statistical model of reporting delays. Results Reporting delays increased over time for the states of Amazonas, Rondônia, Roraima, and Pará. Amapá has maintained a similar reporting delay pattern, while Acre decreased reporting delay between 2010 and 2020. Predictions were more accurate in states with lower reporting delays. The temporal evolution of reporting delays only showed a decrease in malaria reports in Acre from 2010 to 2020. Conclusion Malaria notifications may take days or weeks to enter the national surveillance database. The reporting times are likely to impact incidence estimation over periods when data is incomplete, whilst the impact of delays becomes smaller for retrospective analysis. Short-term assessments for the estimation of malaria incidence from the malaria control programme must deal with reporting delays. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mario J. C. Ayala Naiara C. M. Valiati Leonardo S. Bastos Daniel A. M. Villela |
author_facet |
Mario J. C. Ayala Naiara C. M. Valiati Leonardo S. Bastos Daniel A. M. Villela |
author_sort |
Mario J. C. Ayala |
title |
Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
title_short |
Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
title_full |
Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
title_fullStr |
Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
title_full_unstemmed |
Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
title_sort |
notification of malaria cases in the brazilian amazon basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y https://doaj.org/article/42c225949d4c4987b6d8d7d35f3455a6 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/42c225949d4c4987b6d8d7d35f3455a6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04464-y |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766341553704402944 |