Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming
The increase in frequency and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) under global warming brings great pressure to society. The high vulnerability of ecosystems to MHWs may lead to severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Most studies assessed future climate responses at the Paris Agreement tempera...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:422fb6d02b28458da32d309f2bd0da9f 2023-05-15T15:10:08+02:00 Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming Jiawei Liu Jing-Jia Luo Haiming Xu Jing Ma Jiechun Deng Leying Zhang Daohua Bi Xi Chen 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 https://doaj.org/article/422fb6d02b28458da32d309f2bd0da9f EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000141 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 https://doaj.org/article/422fb6d02b28458da32d309f2bd0da9f Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 32, Iss , Pp 100316- (2021) Marine heatwaves 1.5 °C warming Transient and stabilization responses Regional differences Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 2022-12-31T06:10:15Z The increase in frequency and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) under global warming brings great pressure to society. The high vulnerability of ecosystems to MHWs may lead to severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Most studies assessed future climate responses at the Paris Agreement temperature goals based on transient, rather than stabilization, model simulations. Here, we investigate the differences between transient and stabilization responses at global warming of 1.5 °C in terms of MHWs. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and response time scales to the anthropogenic forcing differ in these two types of simulations because subsurface ocean temperatures take decades to centuries to adjust under external forcing. While global mean metrics of MHWs show little difference between the transient and stabilization responses, significant regional disparities are revealed worldwide, including many climate change hotspots. Regionally intensified MHWs at stabilized 1.5 °C are mostly due to air-sea interactions and subsurface ocean warming that contributes to the stronger SST warming in eastern boundary upwelling systems and the southern Indian Ocean, indicative of potentially greater impacts on marine ecosystems in these regions. In contrast, MHWs would be alleviated in the central equatorial Pacific and Arctic in stabilization responses. Substantial differences in regional MHWs between the transient and stabilization responses oblige us to reconsider previous assessments regarding 1.5 °C warming and future mitigation pathways. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Indian Pacific Weather and Climate Extremes 32 100316 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Marine heatwaves 1.5 °C warming Transient and stabilization responses Regional differences Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Marine heatwaves 1.5 °C warming Transient and stabilization responses Regional differences Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jiawei Liu Jing-Jia Luo Haiming Xu Jing Ma Jiechun Deng Leying Zhang Daohua Bi Xi Chen Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
topic_facet |
Marine heatwaves 1.5 °C warming Transient and stabilization responses Regional differences Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The increase in frequency and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) under global warming brings great pressure to society. The high vulnerability of ecosystems to MHWs may lead to severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Most studies assessed future climate responses at the Paris Agreement temperature goals based on transient, rather than stabilization, model simulations. Here, we investigate the differences between transient and stabilization responses at global warming of 1.5 °C in terms of MHWs. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and response time scales to the anthropogenic forcing differ in these two types of simulations because subsurface ocean temperatures take decades to centuries to adjust under external forcing. While global mean metrics of MHWs show little difference between the transient and stabilization responses, significant regional disparities are revealed worldwide, including many climate change hotspots. Regionally intensified MHWs at stabilized 1.5 °C are mostly due to air-sea interactions and subsurface ocean warming that contributes to the stronger SST warming in eastern boundary upwelling systems and the southern Indian Ocean, indicative of potentially greater impacts on marine ecosystems in these regions. In contrast, MHWs would be alleviated in the central equatorial Pacific and Arctic in stabilization responses. Substantial differences in regional MHWs between the transient and stabilization responses oblige us to reconsider previous assessments regarding 1.5 °C warming and future mitigation pathways. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jiawei Liu Jing-Jia Luo Haiming Xu Jing Ma Jiechun Deng Leying Zhang Daohua Bi Xi Chen |
author_facet |
Jiawei Liu Jing-Jia Luo Haiming Xu Jing Ma Jiechun Deng Leying Zhang Daohua Bi Xi Chen |
author_sort |
Jiawei Liu |
title |
Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
title_short |
Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
title_full |
Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
title_fullStr |
Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °C global warming |
title_sort |
robust regional differences in marine heatwaves between transient and stabilization responses at 1.5 °c global warming |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 https://doaj.org/article/422fb6d02b28458da32d309f2bd0da9f |
geographic |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 32, Iss , Pp 100316- (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000141 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 https://doaj.org/article/422fb6d02b28458da32d309f2bd0da9f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100316 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
32 |
container_start_page |
100316 |
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1766341184184123392 |