The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations an...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 https://doaj.org/article/4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 2024-09-15T17:52:51+00:00 The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 https://doaj.org/article/4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2024) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 2024-08-05T17:49:50Z Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nature Communications 15 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
topic_facet |
Science Q |
description |
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski |
author_facet |
Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski |
author_sort |
Weiming Ma |
title |
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
title_short |
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
title_full |
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
title_fullStr |
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
title_sort |
role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving arctic atmospheric river trends |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 https://doaj.org/article/4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810294875802828800 |