Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

• Published in: Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
• Main Authors: Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
• Subjects: covid-19; coronavirus disease; forecasting; statistical models; epidemiology; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020; https://doaj.org/article/4122307c553b4f058f1ecd6bc0d54dea

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.