Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
Abstract: INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test perio...
Published in: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4122307c553b4f058f1ecd6bc0d54dea |
Summary: | Abstract: INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts. |
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