Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has experienced accelerated loss of ice over the last decades and could become the main contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the associated uncertainty is very large. The main sources of this uncertainty lie in the future scenarios, the climat...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4068c7e12d38456e8641cdb26e52661f 2024-10-06T13:42:40+00:00 Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez J. Blasco A. Robinson M. Montoya J. Alvarez-Solas 2024-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024 https://doaj.org/article/4068c7e12d38456e8641cdb26e52661f EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/4257/2024/tc-18-4257-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/4068c7e12d38456e8641cdb26e52661f The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 4257-4283 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024 2024-09-25T15:39:12Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has experienced accelerated loss of ice over the last decades and could become the main contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the associated uncertainty is very large. The main sources of this uncertainty lie in the future scenarios, the climatic forcing and, most notably, the structural uncertainty due to our lack of understanding of ice–ocean interaction processes, in particular, the representation of subshelf basal melt. In this study, we use a higher-order ice sheet model to investigate the impact of these three sources of uncertainty on the contribution of the AIS to sea level in the coming centuries in the context of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) but extending the projections to 2500. We test the sensitivity of the model to basal melting parameters using several forcings and scenarios simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Results show a strong dependency on the values of the parameter that controls the heat exchange velocity between ice and ocean as well as the forcing and scenario. Higher values of the heat exchange parameter lead to higher sea level rise, with the contribution depending on the forcing–scenario configuration and reaching in some cases more than 3 m in sea level equivalent by the end of 2500. Idealized simulations considering the individual effects of the atmospheric and the oceanic forcing have been performed, demonstrating that the oceanic forcing plays a dominant role over the western sector of the AIS, while the atmospheric forcing is more important for the eastern sector and the interior. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 18 9 4257 4283 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. Juarez-Martinez J. Blasco A. Robinson M. Montoya J. Alvarez-Solas Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has experienced accelerated loss of ice over the last decades and could become the main contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the associated uncertainty is very large. The main sources of this uncertainty lie in the future scenarios, the climatic forcing and, most notably, the structural uncertainty due to our lack of understanding of ice–ocean interaction processes, in particular, the representation of subshelf basal melt. In this study, we use a higher-order ice sheet model to investigate the impact of these three sources of uncertainty on the contribution of the AIS to sea level in the coming centuries in the context of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) but extending the projections to 2500. We test the sensitivity of the model to basal melting parameters using several forcings and scenarios simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Results show a strong dependency on the values of the parameter that controls the heat exchange velocity between ice and ocean as well as the forcing and scenario. Higher values of the heat exchange parameter lead to higher sea level rise, with the contribution depending on the forcing–scenario configuration and reaching in some cases more than 3 m in sea level equivalent by the end of 2500. Idealized simulations considering the individual effects of the atmospheric and the oceanic forcing have been performed, demonstrating that the oceanic forcing plays a dominant role over the western sector of the AIS, while the atmospheric forcing is more important for the eastern sector and the interior. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Juarez-Martinez J. Blasco A. Robinson M. Montoya J. Alvarez-Solas |
author_facet |
A. Juarez-Martinez J. Blasco A. Robinson M. Montoya J. Alvarez-Solas |
author_sort |
A. Juarez-Martinez |
title |
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
title_short |
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
title_full |
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
title_sort |
antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024 https://doaj.org/article/4068c7e12d38456e8641cdb26e52661f |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 4257-4283 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/4257/2024/tc-18-4257-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/4068c7e12d38456e8641cdb26e52661f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4257 |
op_container_end_page |
4283 |
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1812176571008548864 |