Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru.
Background The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated s...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:405e5200606c4635be7c93c90cdb786a 2023-05-15T15:15:51+02:00 Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. Ian W Pray Francesco Pizzitutti Gabrielle Bonnet Eloy Gonzales-Gustavson Wayne Wakeland William K Pan William E Lambert Armando E Gonzalez Hector H Garcia Seth E O'Neal Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru. 2021-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/article/405e5200606c4635be7c93c90cdb786a EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/article/405e5200606c4635be7c93c90cdb786a PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 10, p e0009885 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 2022-12-31T15:13:37Z Background The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy. Methods/principal findings We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)-a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively. Conclusions/significance The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 10 e0009885 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Ian W Pray Francesco Pizzitutti Gabrielle Bonnet Eloy Gonzales-Gustavson Wayne Wakeland William K Pan William E Lambert Armando E Gonzalez Hector H Garcia Seth E O'Neal Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru. Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy. Methods/principal findings We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)-a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively. Conclusions/significance The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ian W Pray Francesco Pizzitutti Gabrielle Bonnet Eloy Gonzales-Gustavson Wayne Wakeland William K Pan William E Lambert Armando E Gonzalez Hector H Garcia Seth E O'Neal Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru. |
author_facet |
Ian W Pray Francesco Pizzitutti Gabrielle Bonnet Eloy Gonzales-Gustavson Wayne Wakeland William K Pan William E Lambert Armando E Gonzalez Hector H Garcia Seth E O'Neal Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru. |
author_sort |
Ian W Pray |
title |
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
title_short |
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
title_full |
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
title_fullStr |
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru. |
title_sort |
validation of a spatial agent-based model for taenia solium transmission ("cystiagent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern peru. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/article/405e5200606c4635be7c93c90cdb786a |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 10, p e0009885 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 https://doaj.org/article/405e5200606c4635be7c93c90cdb786a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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15 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
e0009885 |
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