Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming
The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplific...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:404b6dc18625424ba1895a3d0dcedf64 2023-07-30T03:59:28+02:00 Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming David B Bonan Nicole Feldl Mark D Zelinka Lily C Hahn 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a https://doaj.org/article/404b6dc18625424ba1895a3d0dcedf64 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/404b6dc18625424ba1895a3d0dcedf64 Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 3, p 035010 (2023) precipitation climate change feedbacks energy transport polar climate Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a 2023-07-16T00:37:40Z The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Environmental Research: Climate 2 3 035010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
precipitation climate change feedbacks energy transport polar climate Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
precipitation climate change feedbacks energy transport polar climate Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 David B Bonan Nicole Feldl Mark D Zelinka Lily C Hahn Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
topic_facet |
precipitation climate change feedbacks energy transport polar climate Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David B Bonan Nicole Feldl Mark D Zelinka Lily C Hahn |
author_facet |
David B Bonan Nicole Feldl Mark D Zelinka Lily C Hahn |
author_sort |
David B Bonan |
title |
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
title_short |
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
title_full |
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
title_fullStr |
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
title_sort |
contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a https://doaj.org/article/404b6dc18625424ba1895a3d0dcedf64 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 3, p 035010 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/404b6dc18625424ba1895a3d0dcedf64 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
035010 |
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1772810308602036224 |