Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. W...

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Published in:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Main Authors: W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, J. J. West
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013
https://doaj.org/article/3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1 2023-05-15T15:12:09+02:00 Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers W. J. Collins M. M. Fry H. Yu J. S. Fuglestvedt D. T. Shindell J. J. West 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013 https://doaj.org/article/3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2471/2013/acp-13-2471-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 13, Iss 5, Pp 2471-2485 (2013) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013 2022-12-31T01:01:18Z We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NO x and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic black carbon Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13 5 2471 2485
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Physics
QC1-999
Chemistry
QD1-999
spellingShingle Physics
QC1-999
Chemistry
QD1-999
W. J. Collins
M. M. Fry
H. Yu
J. S. Fuglestvedt
D. T. Shindell
J. J. West
Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
topic_facet Physics
QC1-999
Chemistry
QD1-999
description We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NO x and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author W. J. Collins
M. M. Fry
H. Yu
J. S. Fuglestvedt
D. T. Shindell
J. J. West
author_facet W. J. Collins
M. M. Fry
H. Yu
J. S. Fuglestvedt
D. T. Shindell
J. J. West
author_sort W. J. Collins
title Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
title_short Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
title_full Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
title_fullStr Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
title_full_unstemmed Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
title_sort global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2013
url https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013
https://doaj.org/article/3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
black carbon
Global warming
genre_facet Arctic
black carbon
Global warming
op_source Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 13, Iss 5, Pp 2471-2485 (2013)
op_relation http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2471/2013/acp-13-2471-2013.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316
https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324
doi:10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013
1680-7316
1680-7324
https://doaj.org/article/3f3840940b524e9f979980d7980a50a1
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013
container_title Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
container_volume 13
container_issue 5
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