Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities.
BACKGROUND: Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3ef40a068172453687c40af25f38f7d8 2023-05-15T15:16:49+02:00 Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. Mika Oki Toshihiko Sunahara Masahiro Hashizume Taro Yamamoto 2011-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 https://doaj.org/article/3ef40a068172453687c40af25f38f7d8 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3201920?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 https://doaj.org/article/3ef40a068172453687c40af25f38f7d8 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 10, p e1367 (2011) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 2022-12-31T03:04:40Z BACKGROUND: Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5 10 e1367 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Mika Oki Toshihiko Sunahara Masahiro Hashizume Taro Yamamoto Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mika Oki Toshihiko Sunahara Masahiro Hashizume Taro Yamamoto |
author_facet |
Mika Oki Toshihiko Sunahara Masahiro Hashizume Taro Yamamoto |
author_sort |
Mika Oki |
title |
Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
title_short |
Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
title_full |
Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
title_fullStr |
Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
title_sort |
optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 https://doaj.org/article/3ef40a068172453687c40af25f38f7d8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 10, p e1367 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3201920?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 https://doaj.org/article/3ef40a068172453687c40af25f38f7d8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001367 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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5 |
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10 |
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e1367 |
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