Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3e8f5e12e3d24536b458b1c2d8cd55fc 2023-09-05T13:21:22+02:00 Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate Andrew P Schurer Gabriele C Hegerl Hugues Goosse Massimo A Bollasina Matthew H England Doug M Smith Simon F B Tett 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 https://doaj.org/article/3e8f5e12e3d24536b458b1c2d8cd55fc EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/3e8f5e12e3d24536b458b1c2d8cd55fc Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 4, p 044046 (2023) multi-decadal Atlantic climate variability North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 2023-08-13T00:36:54Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained to follow the observed NAO. We use a particle filter data-assimilation technique that sub-selects members that follow the observed NAO among an ensemble of simulations, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode in a global climate model, without the use of nudging terms. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations can be used to compare the simulated forced response to the effect of the three assimilated modes. Concentrating on the 28 year periods of strongest observed NAO trends, we show that NAO variability leads to large multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land as well as in sea-ice concentration. The Atlantic subpolar gyre region is particularly strongly influenced by the NAO, with links found to both concurrent atmospheric variability and to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Care thus needs to be taken to account for impacts of the NAO when using sea surface temperature in this region as a proxy for AMOC strength over decadal to multi-decadal time-scales. Our results have important implications for climate analyses of the North Atlantic region and highlight the need for further work to understand the causes of multi-decadal NAO variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 18 4 044046 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
multi-decadal Atlantic climate variability North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
multi-decadal Atlantic climate variability North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Andrew P Schurer Gabriele C Hegerl Hugues Goosse Massimo A Bollasina Matthew H England Doug M Smith Simon F B Tett Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
topic_facet |
multi-decadal Atlantic climate variability North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained to follow the observed NAO. We use a particle filter data-assimilation technique that sub-selects members that follow the observed NAO among an ensemble of simulations, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode in a global climate model, without the use of nudging terms. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations can be used to compare the simulated forced response to the effect of the three assimilated modes. Concentrating on the 28 year periods of strongest observed NAO trends, we show that NAO variability leads to large multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land as well as in sea-ice concentration. The Atlantic subpolar gyre region is particularly strongly influenced by the NAO, with links found to both concurrent atmospheric variability and to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Care thus needs to be taken to account for impacts of the NAO when using sea surface temperature in this region as a proxy for AMOC strength over decadal to multi-decadal time-scales. Our results have important implications for climate analyses of the North Atlantic region and highlight the need for further work to understand the causes of multi-decadal NAO variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andrew P Schurer Gabriele C Hegerl Hugues Goosse Massimo A Bollasina Matthew H England Doug M Smith Simon F B Tett |
author_facet |
Andrew P Schurer Gabriele C Hegerl Hugues Goosse Massimo A Bollasina Matthew H England Doug M Smith Simon F B Tett |
author_sort |
Andrew P Schurer |
title |
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
title_short |
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
title_full |
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
title_fullStr |
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate |
title_sort |
role of multi-decadal variability of the winter north atlantic oscillation on northern hemisphere climate |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 https://doaj.org/article/3e8f5e12e3d24536b458b1c2d8cd55fc |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 4, p 044046 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/3e8f5e12e3d24536b458b1c2d8cd55fc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc477 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044046 |
_version_ |
1776201974117564416 |