Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect
Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do no...
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Copernicus Publications
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 https://doaj.org/article/3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb 2023-05-15T14:55:35+02:00 Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect J.-L. F. Li M. Richardson W.-L. Lee E. Fetzer G. Stephens J. Jiang Y. Hong Y.-H. Wang J.-Y. Yu Y. Liu 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 https://doaj.org/article/3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/969/2019/tc-13-969-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 969-980 (2019) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 2022-12-31T02:15:49Z Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an “ice-free” Arctic (monthly mean extent <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">6</mn></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="46pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="853d4a4e5483c299b6fba429ad84db0b"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-13-969-2019-ie00001.svg" width="46pt" height="14pt" src="tc-13-969-2019-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> km 2 ) at 550 ppm CO 2 , compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60–90 ∘ N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3 m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 13 3 969 980 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J.-L. F. Li M. Richardson W.-L. Lee E. Fetzer G. Stephens J. Jiang Y. Hong Y.-H. Wang J.-Y. Yu Y. Liu Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an “ice-free” Arctic (monthly mean extent <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">6</mn></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="46pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="853d4a4e5483c299b6fba429ad84db0b"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-13-969-2019-ie00001.svg" width="46pt" height="14pt" src="tc-13-969-2019-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> km 2 ) at 550 ppm CO 2 , compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60–90 ∘ N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3 m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J.-L. F. Li M. Richardson W.-L. Lee E. Fetzer G. Stephens J. Jiang Y. Hong Y.-H. Wang J.-Y. Yu Y. Liu |
author_facet |
J.-L. F. Li M. Richardson W.-L. Lee E. Fetzer G. Stephens J. Jiang Y. Hong Y.-H. Wang J.-Y. Yu Y. Liu |
author_sort |
J.-L. F. Li |
title |
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
title_short |
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
title_full |
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
title_fullStr |
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
title_sort |
potential faster arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 https://doaj.org/article/3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 13, Pp 969-980 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/969/2019/tc-13-969-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/3e67f613ce954ab0b6683a95e95b3acb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
969 |
op_container_end_page |
980 |
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1766327611378630656 |