Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak.
Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3e2d6069207b423c9ac081426daef31b 2023-05-15T15:11:12+02:00 Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. Adam J Kucharski Sebastian Funk Rosalind M Eggo Henri-Pierre Mallet W John Edmunds Eric J Nilles 2016-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 https://doaj.org/article/3e2d6069207b423c9ac081426daef31b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4871342?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 https://doaj.org/article/3e2d6069207b423c9ac081426daef31b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 5, p e0004726 (2016) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 2022-12-30T22:26:14Z Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6-4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32-17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91-97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12-20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barré ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10 5 e0004726 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Adam J Kucharski Sebastian Funk Rosalind M Eggo Henri-Pierre Mallet W John Edmunds Eric J Nilles Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6-4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32-17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91-97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12-20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adam J Kucharski Sebastian Funk Rosalind M Eggo Henri-Pierre Mallet W John Edmunds Eric J Nilles |
author_facet |
Adam J Kucharski Sebastian Funk Rosalind M Eggo Henri-Pierre Mallet W John Edmunds Eric J Nilles |
author_sort |
Adam J Kucharski |
title |
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
title_short |
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
title_full |
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
title_fullStr |
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak. |
title_sort |
transmission dynamics of zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013-14 french polynesia outbreak. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 https://doaj.org/article/3e2d6069207b423c9ac081426daef31b |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) |
geographic |
Arctic Barré |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barré |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 5, p e0004726 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4871342?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 https://doaj.org/article/3e2d6069207b423c9ac081426daef31b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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10 |
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5 |
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e0004726 |
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