Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios
Zika virus (ZIKV) may cause severe microcephaly in newborn babies and Guillain-Barré syndrome in some adults. In recent decades, its range has expanded in 86 countries. There are two ecologically and evolutionarily district cycles: urban cycle and sylvatic cycle. This work aimed to estimate the urba...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3dfe20a06aea47d78276476388101854 2023-05-15T13:51:22+02:00 Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios Ye Xu Jingni Zhou Tong Liu Peiwen Liu Yang Wu Zetian Lai Jinbao Gu Xiaoguang Chen 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 https://doaj.org/article/3dfe20a06aea47d78276476388101854 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053622000349 https://doaj.org/toc/2590-0536 2590-0536 doi:10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 https://doaj.org/article/3dfe20a06aea47d78276476388101854 Biosafety and Health, Vol 4, Iss 3, Pp 193-204 (2022) Zika virus Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Species distribution modeling MaxEnt Urban cycle Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 2022-12-31T02:54:17Z Zika virus (ZIKV) may cause severe microcephaly in newborn babies and Guillain-Barré syndrome in some adults. In recent decades, its range has expanded in 86 countries. There are two ecologically and evolutionarily district cycles: urban cycle and sylvatic cycle. This work aimed to estimate the urban and sylvatic cycle areas of ZIKV throughout the world. The occurrence records of vectors, non-human primate hosts, and ZIKV were collected. We chose historical climate data, predicted vectors distribution, human population density, and elevation data as the variables to fit the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Current risk area and future prediction were performed with global climate models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Predicting the ZIKV risk area would help tailor related control strategies. The results indicated that 16.6% of the world’s landmass (except Antarctica) is a risk area in the urban cycle. Approximately 6.22 billion people (78.69% of the global population) live in the risk area, with the vast majority in South Asia, tropical Africa, South America, North America, and countries around the Mediterranean Sea. Future climate change decreases the risk area of ZIKV. This study also suggested that the sylvatic cycle happened between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. The overlap region of the urban and sylvatic cycles could be hotpots that ZIKV spill from the sylvatic to the urban cycle. It is indicated that long-term passenger screening, mosquito surveillance, and control are necessary. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Barré ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) Biosafety and Health 4 3 193 204 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Zika virus Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Species distribution modeling MaxEnt Urban cycle Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Zika virus Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Species distribution modeling MaxEnt Urban cycle Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Ye Xu Jingni Zhou Tong Liu Peiwen Liu Yang Wu Zetian Lai Jinbao Gu Xiaoguang Chen Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
topic_facet |
Zika virus Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Species distribution modeling MaxEnt Urban cycle Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Zika virus (ZIKV) may cause severe microcephaly in newborn babies and Guillain-Barré syndrome in some adults. In recent decades, its range has expanded in 86 countries. There are two ecologically and evolutionarily district cycles: urban cycle and sylvatic cycle. This work aimed to estimate the urban and sylvatic cycle areas of ZIKV throughout the world. The occurrence records of vectors, non-human primate hosts, and ZIKV were collected. We chose historical climate data, predicted vectors distribution, human population density, and elevation data as the variables to fit the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Current risk area and future prediction were performed with global climate models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Predicting the ZIKV risk area would help tailor related control strategies. The results indicated that 16.6% of the world’s landmass (except Antarctica) is a risk area in the urban cycle. Approximately 6.22 billion people (78.69% of the global population) live in the risk area, with the vast majority in South Asia, tropical Africa, South America, North America, and countries around the Mediterranean Sea. Future climate change decreases the risk area of ZIKV. This study also suggested that the sylvatic cycle happened between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. The overlap region of the urban and sylvatic cycles could be hotpots that ZIKV spill from the sylvatic to the urban cycle. It is indicated that long-term passenger screening, mosquito surveillance, and control are necessary. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ye Xu Jingni Zhou Tong Liu Peiwen Liu Yang Wu Zetian Lai Jinbao Gu Xiaoguang Chen |
author_facet |
Ye Xu Jingni Zhou Tong Liu Peiwen Liu Yang Wu Zetian Lai Jinbao Gu Xiaoguang Chen |
author_sort |
Ye Xu |
title |
Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
title_short |
Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
title_full |
Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
title_sort |
assessing the risk of spread of zika virus under current and future climate scenarios |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 https://doaj.org/article/3dfe20a06aea47d78276476388101854 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) |
geographic |
Barré |
geographic_facet |
Barré |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_source |
Biosafety and Health, Vol 4, Iss 3, Pp 193-204 (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053622000349 https://doaj.org/toc/2590-0536 2590-0536 doi:10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 https://doaj.org/article/3dfe20a06aea47d78276476388101854 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012 |
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Biosafety and Health |
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4 |
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3 |
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193 |
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204 |
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1766255191990992896 |