Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic

• Published in: Climate Services
• Main Authors: Kyunney Kirillina, Nikita Tananaev, Antonina Savvinova, Vladimir Lobanov, Alla Fedorova, Aleksei Borisov
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2023
• Subjects: Arctic; Sakha (Yakutia) Republic; Regional climate change; Regional model ensemble; Winter roads; Winter road sustainability; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Social sciences (General); H1-99; Sakha; Climate change; Yakutia; Yakutia Republic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100356; https://doaj.org/article/3dc9010264144e06883ae864bd0d8dcc

Winter roads, or zimnik, serve as major connections between communities across the global Arctic, including Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. Although accessible to general public, winter roads in remote regions are primarily used by indigenous communities. Sustainability of winter roads is reduced by climate change effects, via shorter and milder winters, extended shoulder seasons, delayed freeze up and advanced ice break up on rivers used as ice roads. We review the observed and projected change in mean monthly air temperatures, MMAT, °C, during cold season in six localities of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, important residence areas of the indigenous peoples of the North. In observed MMAT records, only North-Western Yakutia hasn’t experienced significant warming. In other localities, a significant step-shift change is observed in months from March to June, and at several stations, also in October and November. Under future climate, assessed with a regional ensemble of global climate models, projected change is expected in core winter months, November to February. In the near future, 2021–2050 period, increase in MMAT is expected mostly in December and January, with only minor increase in shoulder seasons, except in southern Yakutia. In the far future, 2071–2100, only under optimistic SSP 1–2.6 scenario the MMAT change is contained within +3.5 °C, and even in this case, April MMAT increases above −2°C at stations in southern Yakutia. Under SSP 5–8.5 scenario, highest MMAT increase, up to over +12 °C, is projected in the Yakutian Arctic from December to February. In southern Yakutia, both October and April MMAT around or above 0 °C are projected. Winter Road Sustainability Index is assessed based on observed and projected climate. Over northern Yakutia, higher MMAT in core winter months suggest reduced ice thickness on rivers, but overall climate severity allows sustainable winter road operations throughout the season even under high emission scenarios. In the near future, only winter road operations around Tyanya, in ...