Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature.
Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those ele...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3d9e131117f64fcebb43fa87154a80f4 2023-05-15T15:16:43+02:00 Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. Laís Picinini Freitas Alexandra M Schmidt William Cossich Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz Marilia Sá Carvalho 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/article/3d9e131117f64fcebb43fa87154a80f4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/article/3d9e131117f64fcebb43fa87154a80f4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009537 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 2022-12-31T05:03:46Z Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those elements to study the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in 2016. Using spatio-temporal models, under the Bayesian framework, we estimated the association of those factors with chikungunya reported cases by neighbourhood and week. To estimate the minimum temperature effect in a non-linear fashion, we used a transfer function considering an instantaneous effect and propagation of a proportion of such effect to future times. The sociodevelopment index and the proportion of green areas (areas with agriculture, swamps and shoals, tree and shrub cover, and woody-grass cover) were included in the model with time-varying coefficients, allowing us to explore how their associations with the number of cases change throughout the epidemic. There were 13627 chikungunya cases in the study period. The sociodevelopment index presented the strongest association, inversely related to the risk of cases. Such association was more pronounced in the first weeks, indicating that socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods were affected first and hardest by the epidemic. The proportion of green areas effect was null for most weeks. The temperature was directly associated with the risk of chikungunya for most neighbourhoods, with different decaying patterns. The temperature effect persisted longer where the epidemic was concentrated. In such locations, interventions should be designed to be continuous and to work in the long term. We observed that the role of the covariates changes over time. Therefore, time-varying coefficients should be widely incorporated when modelling Aedes-borne diseases. Our model contributed to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of an urban Aedes-borne disease introduction in a tropical ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 6 e0009537 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Laís Picinini Freitas Alexandra M Schmidt William Cossich Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz Marilia Sá Carvalho Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those elements to study the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in 2016. Using spatio-temporal models, under the Bayesian framework, we estimated the association of those factors with chikungunya reported cases by neighbourhood and week. To estimate the minimum temperature effect in a non-linear fashion, we used a transfer function considering an instantaneous effect and propagation of a proportion of such effect to future times. The sociodevelopment index and the proportion of green areas (areas with agriculture, swamps and shoals, tree and shrub cover, and woody-grass cover) were included in the model with time-varying coefficients, allowing us to explore how their associations with the number of cases change throughout the epidemic. There were 13627 chikungunya cases in the study period. The sociodevelopment index presented the strongest association, inversely related to the risk of cases. Such association was more pronounced in the first weeks, indicating that socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods were affected first and hardest by the epidemic. The proportion of green areas effect was null for most weeks. The temperature was directly associated with the risk of chikungunya for most neighbourhoods, with different decaying patterns. The temperature effect persisted longer where the epidemic was concentrated. In such locations, interventions should be designed to be continuous and to work in the long term. We observed that the role of the covariates changes over time. Therefore, time-varying coefficients should be widely incorporated when modelling Aedes-borne diseases. Our model contributed to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of an urban Aedes-borne disease introduction in a tropical ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Laís Picinini Freitas Alexandra M Schmidt William Cossich Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz Marilia Sá Carvalho |
author_facet |
Laís Picinini Freitas Alexandra M Schmidt William Cossich Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz Marilia Sá Carvalho |
author_sort |
Laís Picinini Freitas |
title |
Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal modelling of the first chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: the role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/article/3d9e131117f64fcebb43fa87154a80f4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009537 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 https://doaj.org/article/3d9e131117f64fcebb43fa87154a80f4 |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009537 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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e0009537 |
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