Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways
Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO _2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climat...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3d6407c70374463988f836d4e556d3d3 2023-09-05T13:17:17+02:00 Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways Daisuke Nohara Yoshikatsu Yoshida Kazuhiro Misumi Masamichi Ohba 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 https://doaj.org/article/3d6407c70374463988f836d4e556d3d3 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/3d6407c70374463988f836d4e556d3d3 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 014047 (2013) CO2 emission pathways climate change overshoot carbon cycle Earth system model meridional overturning circulation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 2023-08-13T00:37:42Z Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO _2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO _2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO _2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO _2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 8 1 014047 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
CO2 emission pathways climate change overshoot carbon cycle Earth system model meridional overturning circulation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
CO2 emission pathways climate change overshoot carbon cycle Earth system model meridional overturning circulation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Daisuke Nohara Yoshikatsu Yoshida Kazuhiro Misumi Masamichi Ohba Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
topic_facet |
CO2 emission pathways climate change overshoot carbon cycle Earth system model meridional overturning circulation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO _2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO _2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO _2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO _2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO _2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Daisuke Nohara Yoshikatsu Yoshida Kazuhiro Misumi Masamichi Ohba |
author_facet |
Daisuke Nohara Yoshikatsu Yoshida Kazuhiro Misumi Masamichi Ohba |
author_sort |
Daisuke Nohara |
title |
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
title_short |
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
title_full |
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
title_fullStr |
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways |
title_sort |
dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on co2 emission pathways |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 https://doaj.org/article/3d6407c70374463988f836d4e556d3d3 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 014047 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/3d6407c70374463988f836d4e556d3d3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014047 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014047 |
_version_ |
1776198513742315520 |