Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations
The year 1980 has often been used as a benchmark for the return of Antarctic ozone to conditions assumed to be unaffected by emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), implying that anthropogenic ozone depletion in Antarctica started around 1980. Here, the extent of anthropogenically driven Ant...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 https://doaj.org/article/3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 2023-05-15T13:34:55+02:00 Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations U. Langematz F. Schmidt M. Kunze G. E. Bodeker P. Braesicke 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 https://doaj.org/article/3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15619/2016/acp-16-15619-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16, Pp 15619-15627 (2016) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 2022-12-30T21:21:31Z The year 1980 has often been used as a benchmark for the return of Antarctic ozone to conditions assumed to be unaffected by emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), implying that anthropogenic ozone depletion in Antarctica started around 1980. Here, the extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using output from transient chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone-depleting substance concentrations in conjunction with observations. A regression model is used to attribute CCM modelled and observed changes in Antarctic total column ozone to halogen-driven chemistry prior to 1980. Wintertime Antarctic ozone is strongly affected by dynamical processes that vary in amplitude from year to year and from model to model. However, when the dynamical and chemical impacts on ozone are separated, all models consistently show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980. The anthropogenically driven ozone loss from 1960 to 1980 ranges between 26.4 ± 3.4 and 49.8 ± 6.2 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. An even stronger ozone decline of 56.4 ± 6.8 % was estimated from ozone observations. This analysis of the observations and simulations from 17 CCMs clarifies that while the return of Antarctic ozone to 1980 values remains a valid milestone, achieving that milestone is not indicative of full recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer from the effects of ODSs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 24 15619 15627 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 U. Langematz F. Schmidt M. Kunze G. E. Bodeker P. Braesicke Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The year 1980 has often been used as a benchmark for the return of Antarctic ozone to conditions assumed to be unaffected by emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), implying that anthropogenic ozone depletion in Antarctica started around 1980. Here, the extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using output from transient chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone-depleting substance concentrations in conjunction with observations. A regression model is used to attribute CCM modelled and observed changes in Antarctic total column ozone to halogen-driven chemistry prior to 1980. Wintertime Antarctic ozone is strongly affected by dynamical processes that vary in amplitude from year to year and from model to model. However, when the dynamical and chemical impacts on ozone are separated, all models consistently show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980. The anthropogenically driven ozone loss from 1960 to 1980 ranges between 26.4 ± 3.4 and 49.8 ± 6.2 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. An even stronger ozone decline of 56.4 ± 6.8 % was estimated from ozone observations. This analysis of the observations and simulations from 17 CCMs clarifies that while the return of Antarctic ozone to 1980 values remains a valid milestone, achieving that milestone is not indicative of full recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer from the effects of ODSs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
U. Langematz F. Schmidt M. Kunze G. E. Bodeker P. Braesicke |
author_facet |
U. Langematz F. Schmidt M. Kunze G. E. Bodeker P. Braesicke |
author_sort |
U. Langematz |
title |
Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
title_short |
Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
title_full |
Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
title_sort |
antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 https://doaj.org/article/3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16, Pp 15619-15627 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15619/2016/acp-16-15619-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/3d5fdfe111dd4d50a027974d6ff334a4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
15619 |
op_container_end_page |
15627 |
_version_ |
1766058953701064704 |