Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis
Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3c3477e01ab441eba89f0ad9f99b7297 2023-05-15T15:18:54+02:00 Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis C. M. Surdu C. R. Duguay L. C. Brown D. Fernández Prieto 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 https://doaj.org/article/3c3477e01ab441eba89f0ad9f99b7297 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/167/2014/tc-8-167-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 https://doaj.org/article/3c3477e01ab441eba89f0ad9f99b7297 The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 167-180 (2014) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 2022-12-30T20:57:44Z Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in thinner ice covers and consequently, in a smaller fraction of lakes freezing to their bed in winter. However, these changes have not yet been comprehensively documented. The analysis of a 20 yr time series of European remote sensing satellite ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and a numerical lake ice model were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to the bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last six decades. Given the large area covered by these lakes, changes in the regional climate and weather are related to regime shifts in the ice cover of the lakes. Analysis of available SAR data from 1991 to 2011, from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow, shows a reduction in the fraction of lakes that freeze to the bed in late winter. This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Observed changes of the ice cover show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). Model results indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18–22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01) during the 1991–2011 period and by 21–38 cm (α = 0.001) from 1950 to 2011. The longer trend analysis (1950–2011) also shows a decrease in the ice cover duration by ~24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7–18.6 days (α = 0.001). Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barrow north slope The Cryosphere Tundra Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 8 1 167 180 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 C. M. Surdu C. R. Duguay L. C. Brown D. Fernández Prieto Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in thinner ice covers and consequently, in a smaller fraction of lakes freezing to their bed in winter. However, these changes have not yet been comprehensively documented. The analysis of a 20 yr time series of European remote sensing satellite ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and a numerical lake ice model were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to the bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last six decades. Given the large area covered by these lakes, changes in the regional climate and weather are related to regime shifts in the ice cover of the lakes. Analysis of available SAR data from 1991 to 2011, from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow, shows a reduction in the fraction of lakes that freeze to the bed in late winter. This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Observed changes of the ice cover show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). Model results indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18–22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01) during the 1991–2011 period and by 21–38 cm (α = 0.001) from 1950 to 2011. The longer trend analysis (1950–2011) also shows a decrease in the ice cover duration by ~24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7–18.6 days (α = 0.001). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. M. Surdu C. R. Duguay L. C. Brown D. Fernández Prieto |
author_facet |
C. M. Surdu C. R. Duguay L. C. Brown D. Fernández Prieto |
author_sort |
C. M. Surdu |
title |
Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
title_short |
Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
title_full |
Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
title_fullStr |
Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
title_sort |
response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the north slope of alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 https://doaj.org/article/3c3477e01ab441eba89f0ad9f99b7297 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Barrow north slope The Cryosphere Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barrow north slope The Cryosphere Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 167-180 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/167/2014/tc-8-167-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 https://doaj.org/article/3c3477e01ab441eba89f0ad9f99b7297 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-167-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
167 |
op_container_end_page |
180 |
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1766349061643829248 |