Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines.
Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevent...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/article/3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af 2023-05-15T15:12:47+02:00 Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. Fleur Hierink Jacopo Margutti Marc van den Homberg Nicolas Ray 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/article/3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/article/3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 2, p e0009262 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 2022-12-31T16:06:18Z Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevention. In this study, we introduce a methodology to construct and validate an epidemic risk index using only open data, with a specific focus on scalability. The external validation of our risk index makes use of distance sampling to correct for underreporting of infections, which is often a major source of biases, based on geographical accessibility to health facilities. We apply this methodology to assess the risk of dengue in the Philippines. The results show that the computed dengue risk correlates well with standard epidemiological metrics, i.e. dengue incidence (p = 0.002). Here, dengue risk constitutes of the two dimensions susceptibility and exposure. Susceptibility was particularly associated with dengue incidence (p = 0.048) and dengue case fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.029). Exposure had lower correlations to dengue incidence (p = 0.193) and CFR (p = 0.162). Highest risk indices were seen in the south of the country, mainly among regions with relatively high susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. Our findings reflect that the modelled epidemic risk index is a strong indication of sub-national dengue disease patterns and has therefore proven suitability for disease risk assessments in the absence of timely epidemiological data. The presented methodology enables the construction of a practical, evidence-based tool to support public health and humanitarian decision-making processes with simple, understandable metrics. The index overcomes the main limitations of existing indices in terms of construction and actionability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 2 e0009262 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Fleur Hierink Jacopo Margutti Marc van den Homberg Nicolas Ray Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevention. In this study, we introduce a methodology to construct and validate an epidemic risk index using only open data, with a specific focus on scalability. The external validation of our risk index makes use of distance sampling to correct for underreporting of infections, which is often a major source of biases, based on geographical accessibility to health facilities. We apply this methodology to assess the risk of dengue in the Philippines. The results show that the computed dengue risk correlates well with standard epidemiological metrics, i.e. dengue incidence (p = 0.002). Here, dengue risk constitutes of the two dimensions susceptibility and exposure. Susceptibility was particularly associated with dengue incidence (p = 0.048) and dengue case fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.029). Exposure had lower correlations to dengue incidence (p = 0.193) and CFR (p = 0.162). Highest risk indices were seen in the south of the country, mainly among regions with relatively high susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. Our findings reflect that the modelled epidemic risk index is a strong indication of sub-national dengue disease patterns and has therefore proven suitability for disease risk assessments in the absence of timely epidemiological data. The presented methodology enables the construction of a practical, evidence-based tool to support public health and humanitarian decision-making processes with simple, understandable metrics. The index overcomes the main limitations of existing indices in terms of construction and actionability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fleur Hierink Jacopo Margutti Marc van den Homberg Nicolas Ray |
author_facet |
Fleur Hierink Jacopo Margutti Marc van den Homberg Nicolas Ray |
author_sort |
Fleur Hierink |
title |
Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
title_short |
Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
title_full |
Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
title_fullStr |
Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines. |
title_sort |
constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: a case study for dengue in the philippines. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/article/3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 2, p e0009262 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 https://doaj.org/article/3c29a5a1abe04a019a717a539cf1b4af |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009262 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0009262 |
_version_ |
1766343425366425600 |