Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) generate extreme waves, introducing significant property, personal, and financial risks and damage. Accurate simulations of the sea state during these storms are used to support risk and damage assessments and the design of coastal structures. However, the TCs gene...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3b0657ed154c42ca92afa6d15e57caab 2023-05-15T17:35:19+02:00 Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts Peter Rogowski Sophia Merrifield Clarence Collins Tyler Hesser Allison Ho Randy Bucciarelli James Behrens Eric Terrill 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070690 https://doaj.org/article/3b0657ed154c42ca92afa6d15e57caab EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/7/690 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse9070690 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/3b0657ed154c42ca92afa6d15e57caab Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 690, p 690 (2021) tropical cyclones hurricanes extreme waves wave model hindcasts observational networks wave buoys Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070690 2022-12-31T05:43:38Z Landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) generate extreme waves, introducing significant property, personal, and financial risks and damage. Accurate simulations of the sea state during these storms are used to support risk and damage assessments and the design of coastal structures. However, the TCs generate a complex surface gravity wave field as a result of the inherently strong temporal and spatial gradients of the wind forcing. This complexity is a significant challenge to model. To advance our understanding of the performance of these models on the eastern seaboard of the United States, we conduct an assessment of four hindcast products, three based on WAVEWATCH-III and the other using the Wave Modeling project, for six major landfall TCs between 2011–2019. Unique to our assessment was a comprehensive analysis of these hindcast products against an array of fixed wave buoys that generate high quality data. The analysis reveals a general tendency for the wave models to underestimate significant wave height (Hs) around the peak of the TC. However, when viewed on an individual TC basis, distinct Hs error patterns are evident. Case studies of hurricanes Sandy and Florence illustrate complex Hs bias patterns, likely resulting from various mechanisms including insufficient resolution, improper wind input and source term parameterization (e.g., drag coefficient), and omission of wave–current interactions. Despite the added challenges of simulating complex wave fields in shallow coastal waters, the higher resolution Wave Information Study and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ST4 parameterization only) hindcasts perform relatively well. Results from this study illustrate the challenge of simulating the spatial and temporal variability of TC generated wave fields and demonstrate the value of in-situ validation data such as the north Atlantic buoy array. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9 7 690 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical cyclones hurricanes extreme waves wave model hindcasts observational networks wave buoys Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclones hurricanes extreme waves wave model hindcasts observational networks wave buoys Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Peter Rogowski Sophia Merrifield Clarence Collins Tyler Hesser Allison Ho Randy Bucciarelli James Behrens Eric Terrill Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclones hurricanes extreme waves wave model hindcasts observational networks wave buoys Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) generate extreme waves, introducing significant property, personal, and financial risks and damage. Accurate simulations of the sea state during these storms are used to support risk and damage assessments and the design of coastal structures. However, the TCs generate a complex surface gravity wave field as a result of the inherently strong temporal and spatial gradients of the wind forcing. This complexity is a significant challenge to model. To advance our understanding of the performance of these models on the eastern seaboard of the United States, we conduct an assessment of four hindcast products, three based on WAVEWATCH-III and the other using the Wave Modeling project, for six major landfall TCs between 2011–2019. Unique to our assessment was a comprehensive analysis of these hindcast products against an array of fixed wave buoys that generate high quality data. The analysis reveals a general tendency for the wave models to underestimate significant wave height (Hs) around the peak of the TC. However, when viewed on an individual TC basis, distinct Hs error patterns are evident. Case studies of hurricanes Sandy and Florence illustrate complex Hs bias patterns, likely resulting from various mechanisms including insufficient resolution, improper wind input and source term parameterization (e.g., drag coefficient), and omission of wave–current interactions. Despite the added challenges of simulating complex wave fields in shallow coastal waters, the higher resolution Wave Information Study and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ST4 parameterization only) hindcasts perform relatively well. Results from this study illustrate the challenge of simulating the spatial and temporal variability of TC generated wave fields and demonstrate the value of in-situ validation data such as the north Atlantic buoy array. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Peter Rogowski Sophia Merrifield Clarence Collins Tyler Hesser Allison Ho Randy Bucciarelli James Behrens Eric Terrill |
author_facet |
Peter Rogowski Sophia Merrifield Clarence Collins Tyler Hesser Allison Ho Randy Bucciarelli James Behrens Eric Terrill |
author_sort |
Peter Rogowski |
title |
Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
title_short |
Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
title_full |
Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
title_fullStr |
Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts |
title_sort |
performance assessments of hurricane wave hindcasts |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070690 https://doaj.org/article/3b0657ed154c42ca92afa6d15e57caab |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 690, p 690 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/7/690 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse9070690 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/3b0657ed154c42ca92afa6d15e57caab |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070690 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
690 |
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1766134447850127360 |