The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 ( http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html ) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Tog...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3afce21825a94919bcb4502f16167af0 2023-05-15T18:18:51+02:00 The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections T. Iversen M. Bentsen I. Bethke J. B. Debernard A. Kirkevåg Ø. Seland H. Drange J. E. Kristjansson I. Medhaug M. Sand I. A. Seierstad 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 https://doaj.org/article/3afce21825a94919bcb4502f16167af0 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/389/2013/gmd-6-389-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/3afce21825a94919bcb4502f16167af0 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 389-415 (2013) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 2022-12-31T06:23:41Z NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 ( http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html ) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geoscientific Model Development 6 2 389 415 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 T. Iversen M. Bentsen I. Bethke J. B. Debernard A. Kirkevåg Ø. Seland H. Drange J. E. Kristjansson I. Medhaug M. Sand I. A. Seierstad The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 ( http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html ) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Iversen M. Bentsen I. Bethke J. B. Debernard A. Kirkevåg Ø. Seland H. Drange J. E. Kristjansson I. Medhaug M. Sand I. A. Seierstad |
author_facet |
T. Iversen M. Bentsen I. Bethke J. B. Debernard A. Kirkevåg Ø. Seland H. Drange J. E. Kristjansson I. Medhaug M. Sand I. A. Seierstad |
author_sort |
T. Iversen |
title |
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
title_short |
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
title_full |
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
title_fullStr |
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections |
title_sort |
norwegian earth system model, noresm1-m – part 2: climate response and scenario projections |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 https://doaj.org/article/3afce21825a94919bcb4502f16167af0 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 389-415 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/389/2013/gmd-6-389-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/3afce21825a94919bcb4502f16167af0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
389 |
op_container_end_page |
415 |
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1766195598329905152 |