An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean
Continental shelf regions in the ocean play an important role in the global cycling of carbon and nutrients, but their responses to global change are understudied. Global Earth system models (ESMs), as essential tools for building understanding of ocean biogeochemistry, are used extensively and rout...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3abeac95f8eb437399afed565855e893 2023-05-15T17:32:00+02:00 An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean A. Laurent K. Fennel A. Kuhn 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 https://doaj.org/article/3abeac95f8eb437399afed565855e893 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/18/1803/2021/bg-18-1803-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/3abeac95f8eb437399afed565855e893 Biogeosciences, Vol 18, Pp 1803-1822 (2021) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 2022-12-31T06:28:53Z Continental shelf regions in the ocean play an important role in the global cycling of carbon and nutrients, but their responses to global change are understudied. Global Earth system models (ESMs), as essential tools for building understanding of ocean biogeochemistry, are used extensively and routinely for projections of future climate states; however, their relatively coarse spatial resolution is likely not appropriate for accurately representing the complex patterns of circulation and elemental fluxes on the shelves along ocean margins. Here, we compared 29 ESMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Assessment Reports (ARs) 5 and 6 and a regional biogeochemical model for the northwest North Atlantic (NWA) shelf to assess their ability to reproduce surface observations of temperature, salinity, nitrate and chlorophyll. The NWA region is biologically productive, influenced by the large-scale Gulf Stream and Labrador Current systems and particularly sensitive to climatically induced changes in large-scale circulation. Most ESMs compare relatively poorly to observed surface nitrate and chlorophyll and show differences with observed surface temperature and salinity that suggest spatial mismatches in their large-scale current systems. Model-simulated nitrate and chlorophyll compare better with available observations in AR6 than in AR5, but none of the models perform equally well for all four parameters. The ensemble means of all ESMs, and of the five best-performing ESMs, strongly underestimate observed chlorophyll and nitrate. The regional model has a much higher spatial resolution and reproduces the observations significantly better than any of the ESMs. It also simulates reasonably well vertically resolved observations from gliders and bi-monthly ship-based monitoring observations. A ranking of the ESMs indicates that only one ESM has good and consistent performance for all variables. An additional evaluation of the ESMs along the regional model boundaries shows larger variability but ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Biogeosciences 18 5 1803 1822 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 A. Laurent K. Fennel A. Kuhn An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Continental shelf regions in the ocean play an important role in the global cycling of carbon and nutrients, but their responses to global change are understudied. Global Earth system models (ESMs), as essential tools for building understanding of ocean biogeochemistry, are used extensively and routinely for projections of future climate states; however, their relatively coarse spatial resolution is likely not appropriate for accurately representing the complex patterns of circulation and elemental fluxes on the shelves along ocean margins. Here, we compared 29 ESMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Assessment Reports (ARs) 5 and 6 and a regional biogeochemical model for the northwest North Atlantic (NWA) shelf to assess their ability to reproduce surface observations of temperature, salinity, nitrate and chlorophyll. The NWA region is biologically productive, influenced by the large-scale Gulf Stream and Labrador Current systems and particularly sensitive to climatically induced changes in large-scale circulation. Most ESMs compare relatively poorly to observed surface nitrate and chlorophyll and show differences with observed surface temperature and salinity that suggest spatial mismatches in their large-scale current systems. Model-simulated nitrate and chlorophyll compare better with available observations in AR6 than in AR5, but none of the models perform equally well for all four parameters. The ensemble means of all ESMs, and of the five best-performing ESMs, strongly underestimate observed chlorophyll and nitrate. The regional model has a much higher spatial resolution and reproduces the observations significantly better than any of the ESMs. It also simulates reasonably well vertically resolved observations from gliders and bi-monthly ship-based monitoring observations. A ranking of the ESMs indicates that only one ESM has good and consistent performance for all variables. An additional evaluation of the ESMs along the regional model boundaries shows larger variability but ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Laurent K. Fennel A. Kuhn |
author_facet |
A. Laurent K. Fennel A. Kuhn |
author_sort |
A. Laurent |
title |
An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical earth system model simulations in the northwest north atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 https://doaj.org/article/3abeac95f8eb437399afed565855e893 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 18, Pp 1803-1822 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/18/1803/2021/bg-18-1803-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/3abeac95f8eb437399afed565855e893 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1803 |
op_container_end_page |
1822 |
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1766129902800601088 |