Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane.
As of October 5, 2020, China has reported 2,921 cases imported from overseas. Assessing the effectiveness of China's current policies on imported cases abroad is very important for China and other countries that are facing or will face overseas imported cases. In April, we used a susceptible-ex...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/article/3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 2023-05-15T15:12:47+02:00 Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. Jinhua Pan Jie Tian Haiyan Xiong Zhixi Liu Ye Yao Yesheng Wang Wenlong Zhu Yue Wang Weibing Wang 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/article/3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/article/3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 12, p e0008908 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 2022-12-31T07:46:37Z As of October 5, 2020, China has reported 2,921 cases imported from overseas. Assessing the effectiveness of China's current policies on imported cases abroad is very important for China and other countries that are facing or will face overseas imported cases. In April, we used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model to simulate the epidemic in seven foreign countries, China and the three Chinese key cities. Based on the model outside China, we estimated the proportion of people in incubation period and calculated the risk indexes for Chinese cities through analyzing aviation traffic data from these countries. Based on the model in China and the three key cities, we collected information on control measures and quantified the effectiveness of implementing the current policies at different times and intensities. Our model results showed that Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Guangzhou, and Tianjin have the top five risk indexes. As of April 20, 2020, under current measures, the number of confirmed cases could be reduced by 99% compared with no air traffic restrictions and isolation measures; the reduction could be 93% with isolation of passengers only from key countries. If the current policy were postponed for 7, 10, or 20 days, the increase in the number of confirmed cases would be 1,329, 5,524, and 779,245 respectively, which is 2.1, 5.7, and 662.9 times the number of confirmed cases under current measures. Our research indicates that the importation control measures currently taken by China were implemented at an appropriate time to prevent the epidemic spreading and have achieved relatively good control results. However, it is necessary to remain vigilant; otherwise, another outbreak peak could occur. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 12 e0008908 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Jinhua Pan Jie Tian Haiyan Xiong Zhixi Liu Ye Yao Yesheng Wang Wenlong Zhu Yue Wang Weibing Wang Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
As of October 5, 2020, China has reported 2,921 cases imported from overseas. Assessing the effectiveness of China's current policies on imported cases abroad is very important for China and other countries that are facing or will face overseas imported cases. In April, we used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model to simulate the epidemic in seven foreign countries, China and the three Chinese key cities. Based on the model outside China, we estimated the proportion of people in incubation period and calculated the risk indexes for Chinese cities through analyzing aviation traffic data from these countries. Based on the model in China and the three key cities, we collected information on control measures and quantified the effectiveness of implementing the current policies at different times and intensities. Our model results showed that Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Guangzhou, and Tianjin have the top five risk indexes. As of April 20, 2020, under current measures, the number of confirmed cases could be reduced by 99% compared with no air traffic restrictions and isolation measures; the reduction could be 93% with isolation of passengers only from key countries. If the current policy were postponed for 7, 10, or 20 days, the increase in the number of confirmed cases would be 1,329, 5,524, and 779,245 respectively, which is 2.1, 5.7, and 662.9 times the number of confirmed cases under current measures. Our research indicates that the importation control measures currently taken by China were implemented at an appropriate time to prevent the epidemic spreading and have achieved relatively good control results. However, it is necessary to remain vigilant; otherwise, another outbreak peak could occur. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jinhua Pan Jie Tian Haiyan Xiong Zhixi Liu Ye Yao Yesheng Wang Wenlong Zhu Yue Wang Weibing Wang |
author_facet |
Jinhua Pan Jie Tian Haiyan Xiong Zhixi Liu Ye Yao Yesheng Wang Wenlong Zhu Yue Wang Weibing Wang |
author_sort |
Jinhua Pan |
title |
Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
title_short |
Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
title_full |
Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
title_fullStr |
Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk assessment and evaluation of China's policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane. |
title_sort |
risk assessment and evaluation of china's policy to prevent covid-19 cases imported by plane. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/article/3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 12, p e0008908 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 https://doaj.org/article/3a9825a8f4cb49b59000aedc69b06230 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
e0008908 |
_version_ |
1766343419598209024 |