Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios
Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 2023-05-15T13:58:57+02:00 Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 https://doaj.org/article/3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 EN eng Academia Brasileira de Ciências http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104&lng=en&tlng=en http://www.scielo.br/pdf/aabc/v94s1/0001-3765-aabc-94-s1-e20210667.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1678-2690 1678-2690 doi:10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 https://doaj.org/article/3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, Vol 94, Iss suppl 1 (2021) Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP Science Q article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 2022-12-31T03:51:33Z Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências 94 suppl 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP Science Q |
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Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP Science Q LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
topic_facet |
Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP Science Q |
description |
Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA |
author_facet |
LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA |
author_sort |
LUCIANA F. PRADO |
title |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_short |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_full |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
title_sort |
positive sam trend as seen in the brazilian earth system model (besm) future scenarios |
publisher |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 https://doaj.org/article/3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice |
op_source |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, Vol 94, Iss suppl 1 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104&lng=en&tlng=en http://www.scielo.br/pdf/aabc/v94s1/0001-3765-aabc-94-s1-e20210667.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1678-2690 1678-2690 doi:10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 https://doaj.org/article/3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220210667 |
container_title |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
container_volume |
94 |
container_issue |
suppl 1 |
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1766267314658869248 |