Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts
Abstract The term “weather whiplash” describes abrupt transitions from one persistent weather regime to another substantially different one, such as from a frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth. Weather whiplash events (WWEs) are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, infrastructure, an...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:394a183836e9401d9873e87780feb7ec 2024-01-28T10:07:34+01:00 Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts Jennifer A. Francis Natasa Skific Zachary Zobel 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 https://doaj.org/article/394a183836e9401d9873e87780feb7ec EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/394a183836e9401d9873e87780feb7ec npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 2023-12-31T01:48:59Z Abstract The term “weather whiplash” describes abrupt transitions from one persistent weather regime to another substantially different one, such as from a frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth. Weather whiplash events (WWEs) are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, infrastructure, and human activities. While no consistent definition exists, we identify WWEs based on substantial shifts in the continental-scale, upper-atmosphere circulation. As first demonstrated in our earlier study focused on the NE Pacific/North American region, a WWE is detected when one persistent, large-scale pattern in 500 hPa height anomalies shifts to another distinctly different one. Patterns are identified using self-organizing maps (SOMs), which create a matrix of representative patterns in the data. In the present study, we apply this approach to identify WWEs in the North Atlantic/European sector. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long-duration events (four or more days) in each pattern. A WWE is detected when the pattern two days following a long-duration event is substantially different, measured with distance thresholds internal to the matrix. Changes in WWE frequency, past and future, are assessed objectively based on reanalysis output and climate model simulations. We find that future changes under RCP 8.5 forcing exhibit distinct trends, especially in summer months, while those based on reanalysis are less clear. Patterns featuring positive height anomalies in high latitudes are projected to produce more WWEs in the future, while patterns exhibiting negative anomalies produce fewer. Shifts in temperature and precipitation extremes associated with these WWEs are diagnosed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jennifer A. Francis Natasa Skific Zachary Zobel Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The term “weather whiplash” describes abrupt transitions from one persistent weather regime to another substantially different one, such as from a frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth. Weather whiplash events (WWEs) are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, infrastructure, and human activities. While no consistent definition exists, we identify WWEs based on substantial shifts in the continental-scale, upper-atmosphere circulation. As first demonstrated in our earlier study focused on the NE Pacific/North American region, a WWE is detected when one persistent, large-scale pattern in 500 hPa height anomalies shifts to another distinctly different one. Patterns are identified using self-organizing maps (SOMs), which create a matrix of representative patterns in the data. In the present study, we apply this approach to identify WWEs in the North Atlantic/European sector. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long-duration events (four or more days) in each pattern. A WWE is detected when the pattern two days following a long-duration event is substantially different, measured with distance thresholds internal to the matrix. Changes in WWE frequency, past and future, are assessed objectively based on reanalysis output and climate model simulations. We find that future changes under RCP 8.5 forcing exhibit distinct trends, especially in summer months, while those based on reanalysis are less clear. Patterns featuring positive height anomalies in high latitudes are projected to produce more WWEs in the future, while patterns exhibiting negative anomalies produce fewer. Shifts in temperature and precipitation extremes associated with these WWEs are diagnosed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jennifer A. Francis Natasa Skific Zachary Zobel |
author_facet |
Jennifer A. Francis Natasa Skific Zachary Zobel |
author_sort |
Jennifer A. Francis |
title |
Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
title_short |
Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
title_full |
Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
title_fullStr |
Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
title_sort |
weather whiplash events in europe and north atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 https://doaj.org/article/394a183836e9401d9873e87780feb7ec |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/394a183836e9401d9873e87780feb7ec |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00542-9 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1789335429772738560 |