Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century
Sea ice concentration and thickness are key parameters for Arctic shipping routes and navigable potential. This study focuses on the changes in shipping routes and the estimation of navigable potential in the Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route during 2021–2050 based on the sea ice da...
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MDPI AG
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11122340 https://doaj.org/article/3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 2024-01-21T10:02:58+01:00 Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century Yu Zhang Xiaopeng Sun Yufan Zha Kun Wang Changsheng Chen 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11122340 https://doaj.org/article/3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/12/2340 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse11122340 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 11, Iss 12, p 2340 (2023) Arctic sea ice climate models CMIP6 Arctic shipping routes navigation potential Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11122340 2023-12-24T01:36:59Z Sea ice concentration and thickness are key parameters for Arctic shipping routes and navigable potential. This study focuses on the changes in shipping routes and the estimation of navigable potential in the Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route during 2021–2050 based on the sea ice data predicted by eight CMIP6 models. The Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness vary among the eight models, but all indicate a declining trend. This study indicates that, under the two scenarios, the least-cost route will migrate more rapidly from the low-latitude route to the high-latitude route in the next 30 years, showing that the Transpolar Sea Route will be navigable for Open Water (OW) and Polar Class 6 (PC6) before 2025, which is advanced by nearly 10 years compared to previous studies. The sailing time will decrease to 16 and 13 days for OW and PC6 by 2050, which saves 3 days compared to previous studies. For OW, the navigable season is mainly from August to October, and the Northern Sea Route is still the main route, while for PC6, the navigable season is mainly from July to January of the following year, and the Transpolar Sea Route will become one of the important choices. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11 12 2340 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice climate models CMIP6 Arctic shipping routes navigation potential Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice climate models CMIP6 Arctic shipping routes navigation potential Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Yu Zhang Xiaopeng Sun Yufan Zha Kun Wang Changsheng Chen Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice climate models CMIP6 Arctic shipping routes navigation potential Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Sea ice concentration and thickness are key parameters for Arctic shipping routes and navigable potential. This study focuses on the changes in shipping routes and the estimation of navigable potential in the Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route during 2021–2050 based on the sea ice data predicted by eight CMIP6 models. The Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness vary among the eight models, but all indicate a declining trend. This study indicates that, under the two scenarios, the least-cost route will migrate more rapidly from the low-latitude route to the high-latitude route in the next 30 years, showing that the Transpolar Sea Route will be navigable for Open Water (OW) and Polar Class 6 (PC6) before 2025, which is advanced by nearly 10 years compared to previous studies. The sailing time will decrease to 16 and 13 days for OW and PC6 by 2050, which saves 3 days compared to previous studies. For OW, the navigable season is mainly from August to October, and the Northern Sea Route is still the main route, while for PC6, the navigable season is mainly from July to January of the following year, and the Transpolar Sea Route will become one of the important choices. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yu Zhang Xiaopeng Sun Yufan Zha Kun Wang Changsheng Chen |
author_facet |
Yu Zhang Xiaopeng Sun Yufan Zha Kun Wang Changsheng Chen |
author_sort |
Yu Zhang |
title |
Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
title_short |
Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
title_full |
Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
title_fullStr |
Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century |
title_sort |
changing arctic northern sea route and transpolar sea route: a prediction of route changes and navigation potential before mid-21st century |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11122340 https://doaj.org/article/3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 11, Iss 12, p 2340 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/12/2340 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse11122340 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/3882668d3537452b9ed5a807f5dc1069 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11122340 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2340 |
_version_ |
1788693218073772032 |