Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding
The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measu...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://doaj.org/article/38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 2023-10-09T21:44:01+02:00 Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://doaj.org/article/38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 10, p 104003 (2023) coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac 2023-09-17T00:36:01Z The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km ^2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Talik ENVELOPE(146.601,146.601,59.667,59.667) Environmental Research Letters 18 10 104003 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
topic_facet |
coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km ^2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson |
author_facet |
Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson |
author_sort |
Ziyi Wang |
title |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_short |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_full |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_fullStr |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_sort |
arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://doaj.org/article/38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(146.601,146.601,59.667,59.667) |
geographic |
Arctic Talik |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Talik |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 10, p 104003 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104003 |
_version_ |
1779313362006441984 |