The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019
In this study, the Arctic sea ice cover in the sector 30° W–60° E in February, and the monthly mean temperature (averaged over the polar cap north of 70° N and 700–1000 hPa, Tcap) in winter during 1979–2019 were analyzed using established change-point detection methods. Step changes were found in 20...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:37f0185f855540b9a7e364cfe22e19d4 2023-05-15T14:48:15+02:00 The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 Songmiao Fan 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060880 https://doaj.org/article/37f0185f855540b9a7e364cfe22e19d4 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/880 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13060880 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/37f0185f855540b9a7e364cfe22e19d4 Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 880, p 880 (2022) arctic changes change-point detection weather regimes ural blocking Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060880 2022-12-31T03:10:06Z In this study, the Arctic sea ice cover in the sector 30° W–60° E in February, and the monthly mean temperature (averaged over the polar cap north of 70° N and 700–1000 hPa, Tcap) in winter during 1979–2019 were analyzed using established change-point detection methods. Step changes were found in 2004, with lower sea ice cover and higher air temperature during 2005–2019 than 1979–2004 (with Tcap anomalies of 1.05 K and −0.63 K, respectively). Two combinations of weather regimes were associated with the anomalously warm months (1.61 K): (1) Scandinavian trough and Ural blocking, and (2) Atlantic ridge and Ural blocking. The first causes a “polar express” for the poleward transport of heat and moisture from mid-latitude East Europe. The second causes a “two-stage heat pump” that transports heat and moisture from the subarctic Atlantic. Their opposite combinations were associated with the anomalously cold months (−0.73 K), which occurred more frequently during 1979–2004. These trends in weather regimes could account for 25% of the step-change in Arctic winter temperature, with the remainder likely caused by changes in sea ice cover, ocean heat transport, and concentrations of aerosol and greenhouse gases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Subarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Atmosphere 13 6 880 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic changes change-point detection weather regimes ural blocking Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
arctic changes change-point detection weather regimes ural blocking Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Songmiao Fan The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
topic_facet |
arctic changes change-point detection weather regimes ural blocking Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
In this study, the Arctic sea ice cover in the sector 30° W–60° E in February, and the monthly mean temperature (averaged over the polar cap north of 70° N and 700–1000 hPa, Tcap) in winter during 1979–2019 were analyzed using established change-point detection methods. Step changes were found in 2004, with lower sea ice cover and higher air temperature during 2005–2019 than 1979–2004 (with Tcap anomalies of 1.05 K and −0.63 K, respectively). Two combinations of weather regimes were associated with the anomalously warm months (1.61 K): (1) Scandinavian trough and Ural blocking, and (2) Atlantic ridge and Ural blocking. The first causes a “polar express” for the poleward transport of heat and moisture from mid-latitude East Europe. The second causes a “two-stage heat pump” that transports heat and moisture from the subarctic Atlantic. Their opposite combinations were associated with the anomalously cold months (−0.73 K), which occurred more frequently during 1979–2004. These trends in weather regimes could account for 25% of the step-change in Arctic winter temperature, with the remainder likely caused by changes in sea ice cover, ocean heat transport, and concentrations of aerosol and greenhouse gases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Songmiao Fan |
author_facet |
Songmiao Fan |
author_sort |
Songmiao Fan |
title |
The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
title_short |
The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
title_full |
The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
title_fullStr |
The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Influence of Extratropical Weather Regimes on Wintertime Temperature Variations in the Arctic during 1979–2019 |
title_sort |
influence of extratropical weather regimes on wintertime temperature variations in the arctic during 1979–2019 |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060880 https://doaj.org/article/37f0185f855540b9a7e364cfe22e19d4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Subarctic |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 880, p 880 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/880 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13060880 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/37f0185f855540b9a7e364cfe22e19d4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060880 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
880 |
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1766319337691414528 |