Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration
Evidence has been found for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in a number of forests at high northern latitudes and alpine locations. Furthermore, at some of these sites, emergent subpopulations of trees show negative growth trends with rising temperature. These findings are typicall...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:37c71da7e1d14d6bb4ba2486acfda2f9 2023-05-15T15:09:34+02:00 Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration H. Visser U. Büntgen R. D'Arrigo A. C. Petersen 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 https://doaj.org/article/37c71da7e1d14d6bb4ba2486acfda2f9 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/6/367/2010/cp-6-367-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/37c71da7e1d14d6bb4ba2486acfda2f9 Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 3, Pp 367-377 (2010) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2010 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 2022-12-31T11:57:46Z Evidence has been found for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in a number of forests at high northern latitudes and alpine locations. Furthermore, at some of these sites, emergent subpopulations of trees show negative growth trends with rising temperature. These findings are typically referred to as the "Divergence Problem" (DP). Given the high relevance of paleoclimatic reconstructions for policy-related studies, it is important for dendrochronologists to address this issue of potential model uncertainties associated with the DP. Here we address this issue by proposing a calibration technique, termed "stochastic response function" (SRF), which allows the presence or absence of any instabilities in growth response of trees (or any other climate proxy) to their calibration target to be visualized and detected. Since this framework estimates confidence limits and subsequently provides statistical significance tests, the approach is also very well suited for proxy screening prior to the generation of a climate-reconstruction network. Two examples of tree growth/climate relationships are provided, one from the North American Arctic treeline and the other from the upper treeline in the European Alps. Instabilities were found to be present where stabilities were reported in the literature, and vice versa, stabilities were found where instabilities were reported. We advise to apply SRFs in future proxy-screening schemes, next to the use of correlations and RE/CE statistics. It will improve the strength of reconstruction hindcasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Climate of the Past 6 3 367 377 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 H. Visser U. Büntgen R. D'Arrigo A. C. Petersen Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Evidence has been found for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in a number of forests at high northern latitudes and alpine locations. Furthermore, at some of these sites, emergent subpopulations of trees show negative growth trends with rising temperature. These findings are typically referred to as the "Divergence Problem" (DP). Given the high relevance of paleoclimatic reconstructions for policy-related studies, it is important for dendrochronologists to address this issue of potential model uncertainties associated with the DP. Here we address this issue by proposing a calibration technique, termed "stochastic response function" (SRF), which allows the presence or absence of any instabilities in growth response of trees (or any other climate proxy) to their calibration target to be visualized and detected. Since this framework estimates confidence limits and subsequently provides statistical significance tests, the approach is also very well suited for proxy screening prior to the generation of a climate-reconstruction network. Two examples of tree growth/climate relationships are provided, one from the North American Arctic treeline and the other from the upper treeline in the European Alps. Instabilities were found to be present where stabilities were reported in the literature, and vice versa, stabilities were found where instabilities were reported. We advise to apply SRFs in future proxy-screening schemes, next to the use of correlations and RE/CE statistics. It will improve the strength of reconstruction hindcasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Visser U. Büntgen R. D'Arrigo A. C. Petersen |
author_facet |
H. Visser U. Büntgen R. D'Arrigo A. C. Petersen |
author_sort |
H. Visser |
title |
Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
title_short |
Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
title_full |
Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
title_fullStr |
Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
title_sort |
detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 https://doaj.org/article/37c71da7e1d14d6bb4ba2486acfda2f9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 3, Pp 367-377 (2010) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/6/367/2010/cp-6-367-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/37c71da7e1d14d6bb4ba2486acfda2f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-367-2010 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
367 |
op_container_end_page |
377 |
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1766340734058758144 |