Epidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2022
• Subjects: Malaria dynamics; Climate; HIV; Poverty; Social instability; Population size; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-022-04161-2; https://doaj.org/article/370aad3c61034681aa194328a558f2cf

Abstract Background During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the changes of malaria cases in African highlands were driven by climate change. Recently, a study claimed that the malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum) in Oromia (Ethiopia) were related to minimum temperature. Critics highlighted that other variables could be involved in the dynamics of the malaria. The literature mentions that beyond climate change, trends in malaria cases could be involved with HIV, human population size, poverty, investments in health control programmes, among others. Methods Population ecologists have developed a simple framework, which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behaviour of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependent (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by the previous population size. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. This study explores the dynamics of malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) in Oromia region in Ethiopia and explores the interaction between minimum temperature, HIV, poverty, human population size and social instability. Results The results support that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class, and a weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis. Conclusion Poverty, HIV, population size could interact to force malaria models parameters explaining the dynamics malaria observed at Ethiopia from 1985 to 2007.