Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events
Abstract The current study extends earlier work that demonstrated future extratropical transition (ET) events will feature greater intensity and heavier precipitation to specifically consider potential changes in the impacts of landfalling ET events in a warming climate. A quasi‐idealized modeling f...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/article/36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 2024-09-15T18:23:26+00:00 Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events Chunyong Jung Gary M. Lackmann 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/article/36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/article/36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) extratropical transition tropical cyclone climate change quasi‐idealized simulation Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract The current study extends earlier work that demonstrated future extratropical transition (ET) events will feature greater intensity and heavier precipitation to specifically consider potential changes in the impacts of landfalling ET events in a warming climate. A quasi‐idealized modeling framework allows comparison of highly similar present‐day and future event simulations; the model initial conditions are based on observational composites, increasing representativeness of the results. The future composite ET event features substantially more impactful weather conditions in coastal areas, with heavier precipitation and greater storm intensity. Specifically, a Category 2 present‐day storm attained Category 4 Saffir‐Simpson intensity in the future simulation and maintained greater intensity throughout the entire life cycle, although the storm undergoes less reintensification during the post‐ET process, a result of reduced baroclinic conversion. These findings suggest increased potential for coastal hazards due to stronger tropical cyclone winds and heavier rainfall, leading to more severe coastal flooding and storm surge. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 50 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
extratropical transition tropical cyclone climate change quasi‐idealized simulation Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
extratropical transition tropical cyclone climate change quasi‐idealized simulation Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Chunyong Jung Gary M. Lackmann Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
topic_facet |
extratropical transition tropical cyclone climate change quasi‐idealized simulation Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract The current study extends earlier work that demonstrated future extratropical transition (ET) events will feature greater intensity and heavier precipitation to specifically consider potential changes in the impacts of landfalling ET events in a warming climate. A quasi‐idealized modeling framework allows comparison of highly similar present‐day and future event simulations; the model initial conditions are based on observational composites, increasing representativeness of the results. The future composite ET event features substantially more impactful weather conditions in coastal areas, with heavier precipitation and greater storm intensity. Specifically, a Category 2 present‐day storm attained Category 4 Saffir‐Simpson intensity in the future simulation and maintained greater intensity throughout the entire life cycle, although the storm undergoes less reintensification during the post‐ET process, a result of reduced baroclinic conversion. These findings suggest increased potential for coastal hazards due to stronger tropical cyclone winds and heavier rainfall, leading to more severe coastal flooding and storm surge. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chunyong Jung Gary M. Lackmann |
author_facet |
Chunyong Jung Gary M. Lackmann |
author_sort |
Chunyong Jung |
title |
Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
title_short |
Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
title_full |
Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
title_fullStr |
Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events |
title_sort |
changes in tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition in a warming climate: quasi‐idealized numerical experiments of north atlantic landfalling events |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/article/36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL101963 https://doaj.org/article/36fc062071754724be7737f8077b7652 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1810463639029678080 |