The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quan...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://doaj.org/article/36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b 2024-01-21T10:01:44+01:00 The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha P. Kumar A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer C. Smith 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://doaj.org/article/36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b EN eng Copernicus Publications https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/gmd-16-7461-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 16, Pp 7461-7489 (2023) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 2023-12-24T01:41:12Z Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Geoscientific Model Development 16 24 7461 7489 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha P. Kumar A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer C. Smith The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha P. Kumar A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer C. Smith |
author_facet |
R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha P. Kumar A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer C. Smith |
author_sort |
R. E. Kopp |
title |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_short |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_sort |
framework for assessing changes to sea-level (facts) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://doaj.org/article/36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 16, Pp 7461-7489 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/gmd-16-7461-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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16 |
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24 |
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7461 |
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7489 |
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1788691787735367680 |