Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
Determining reliable probability distributions for ice sheet mass change over the coming century is critical to refining uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. Bayesian calibration, a method for constraining projection uncertainty using observations, has been previously applied to ice sheet pr...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 https://doaj.org/article/3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 2023-12-10T09:49:06+01:00 Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations D. Felikson S. Nowicki I. Nias B. Csatho A. Schenk M. J. Croteau B. Loomis 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 https://doaj.org/article/3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4661/2023/tc-17-4661-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 4661-4673 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 2023-11-12T01:39:09Z Determining reliable probability distributions for ice sheet mass change over the coming century is critical to refining uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. Bayesian calibration, a method for constraining projection uncertainty using observations, has been previously applied to ice sheet projections but the impact of the chosen observation type on the calibrated posterior probability distributions has not been quantified. Here, we perform three separate Bayesian calibrations to constrain uncertainty in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) simulations of the committed mass loss in 2100 under the current climate, using observations of velocity change, dynamic ice thickness change, and mass change. Comparing the posterior probability distributions shows that the median ice sheet mass change can differ by 119 % for the particular model ensemble that we used, depending on the observation type used in the calibration. More importantly for risk-averse sea-level planning, posterior probabilities of high-end mass change scenarios are highly sensitive to the observation selected for calibration. Furthermore, we show that using mass change observations alone may result in model simulations that overestimate flow acceleration and underestimate dynamic thinning around the margin of the ice sheet. Finally, we look ahead and present ideas for ways to improve Bayesian calibration of ice sheet projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 17 11 4661 4673 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 D. Felikson S. Nowicki I. Nias B. Csatho A. Schenk M. J. Croteau B. Loomis Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Determining reliable probability distributions for ice sheet mass change over the coming century is critical to refining uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. Bayesian calibration, a method for constraining projection uncertainty using observations, has been previously applied to ice sheet projections but the impact of the chosen observation type on the calibrated posterior probability distributions has not been quantified. Here, we perform three separate Bayesian calibrations to constrain uncertainty in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) simulations of the committed mass loss in 2100 under the current climate, using observations of velocity change, dynamic ice thickness change, and mass change. Comparing the posterior probability distributions shows that the median ice sheet mass change can differ by 119 % for the particular model ensemble that we used, depending on the observation type used in the calibration. More importantly for risk-averse sea-level planning, posterior probabilities of high-end mass change scenarios are highly sensitive to the observation selected for calibration. Furthermore, we show that using mass change observations alone may result in model simulations that overestimate flow acceleration and underestimate dynamic thinning around the margin of the ice sheet. Finally, we look ahead and present ideas for ways to improve Bayesian calibration of ice sheet projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. Felikson S. Nowicki I. Nias B. Csatho A. Schenk M. J. Croteau B. Loomis |
author_facet |
D. Felikson S. Nowicki I. Nias B. Csatho A. Schenk M. J. Croteau B. Loomis |
author_sort |
D. Felikson |
title |
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
title_short |
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
title_full |
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations |
title_sort |
choice of observation type affects bayesian calibration of greenland ice sheet model simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 https://doaj.org/article/3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 4661-4673 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4661/2023/tc-17-4661-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/3648478c95db400b97048fbbc5542690 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4661 |
op_container_end_page |
4673 |
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1784893381125603328 |