Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade
The retreat of the ice around the freezing waters of the Arctic Ocean is opening new waterways where shipping activity could transport commodities between continents. One of the essential products is natural gas - LNG, which is transported in large tankers from exporters to importers. This study aim...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3600dceff8754f9dbde244365d9d4c3d 2023-10-29T02:33:35+01:00 Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade Abel Meza Ibrahim Ari Mohammed Al Sada Muammer Koç 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 https://doaj.org/article/3600dceff8754f9dbde244365d9d4c3d EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001244 https://doaj.org/toc/2211-467X 2211-467X doi:10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 https://doaj.org/article/3600dceff8754f9dbde244365d9d4c3d Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol 50, Iss , Pp 101174- (2023) Agent-based model LNG trade Arctic sea North-East passage Northwest passage Simulation Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 2023-10-01T00:35:42Z The retreat of the ice around the freezing waters of the Arctic Ocean is opening new waterways where shipping activity could transport commodities between continents. One of the essential products is natural gas - LNG, which is transported in large tankers from exporters to importers. This study aims to explore the dynamics of the LNG trade by using these new tentative routes with conventional sea lanes and estimating the changes in the LNG trade. We utilize Agent-Based Modeling to develop a global LNG model with interactive GIS features, where the agents are the players in the LNG market. The results demonstrate the preponderance of the North-East Passage (NEP, Eurasian Arctic waters) over the North-Western Passage (NWP, the Canadian Arctic) in providing a shortcut connecting Europe with Asia. This passage favors a growing exporter like Russia with exporting facilities in Siberia and future strategic projects to increase liquefaction capacity. The NEP becomes crucial when considering scenarios of a European ban on Russian imports, as European countries are planning due to the crisis with Russia. On the importing side, the Asian Pacific and South Asian importers are the winners with a diverse and shorter LNG supply source. Future Canadian projects may also benefit from these new highways. However, there are also substantial challenges to providing the NEP with the proper infrastructure and systems to make the Polar LNG journeys safe and sound shortly. Beyond that, the Arctic sea corridors may alleviate the high LNG transit through the conventional routes and their chokepoints, but they are not a replacement for the conventional ones, not even with the most favorable conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean North East Passage Northwest passage Siberia Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Energy Strategy Reviews 50 101174 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Agent-based model LNG trade Arctic sea North-East passage Northwest passage Simulation Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 |
spellingShingle |
Agent-based model LNG trade Arctic sea North-East passage Northwest passage Simulation Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 Abel Meza Ibrahim Ari Mohammed Al Sada Muammer Koç Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
topic_facet |
Agent-based model LNG trade Arctic sea North-East passage Northwest passage Simulation Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 |
description |
The retreat of the ice around the freezing waters of the Arctic Ocean is opening new waterways where shipping activity could transport commodities between continents. One of the essential products is natural gas - LNG, which is transported in large tankers from exporters to importers. This study aims to explore the dynamics of the LNG trade by using these new tentative routes with conventional sea lanes and estimating the changes in the LNG trade. We utilize Agent-Based Modeling to develop a global LNG model with interactive GIS features, where the agents are the players in the LNG market. The results demonstrate the preponderance of the North-East Passage (NEP, Eurasian Arctic waters) over the North-Western Passage (NWP, the Canadian Arctic) in providing a shortcut connecting Europe with Asia. This passage favors a growing exporter like Russia with exporting facilities in Siberia and future strategic projects to increase liquefaction capacity. The NEP becomes crucial when considering scenarios of a European ban on Russian imports, as European countries are planning due to the crisis with Russia. On the importing side, the Asian Pacific and South Asian importers are the winners with a diverse and shorter LNG supply source. Future Canadian projects may also benefit from these new highways. However, there are also substantial challenges to providing the NEP with the proper infrastructure and systems to make the Polar LNG journeys safe and sound shortly. Beyond that, the Arctic sea corridors may alleviate the high LNG transit through the conventional routes and their chokepoints, but they are not a replacement for the conventional ones, not even with the most favorable conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abel Meza Ibrahim Ari Mohammed Al Sada Muammer Koç |
author_facet |
Abel Meza Ibrahim Ari Mohammed Al Sada Muammer Koç |
author_sort |
Abel Meza |
title |
Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
title_short |
Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
title_full |
Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
title_fullStr |
Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relevance and potential of the Arctic Sea Routes on the LNG trade |
title_sort |
relevance and potential of the arctic sea routes on the lng trade |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 https://doaj.org/article/3600dceff8754f9dbde244365d9d4c3d |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North East Passage Northwest passage Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North East Passage Northwest passage Siberia |
op_source |
Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol 50, Iss , Pp 101174- (2023) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001244 https://doaj.org/toc/2211-467X 2211-467X doi:10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 https://doaj.org/article/3600dceff8754f9dbde244365d9d4c3d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101174 |
container_title |
Energy Strategy Reviews |
container_volume |
50 |
container_start_page |
101174 |
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1781055708135948288 |