Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study

• Published in: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine
• Main Authors: Vahid Rahmanian, Saied Bokaie, Aliakbar Haghdoost, Mohsen Barouni
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications 2021
• Subjects: leishmaniasis; climate factor; time series analysis; forecasting; iran; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic; Sarima
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.4103/1995-7645.306739; https://doaj.org/article/352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f

Objective: To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models and Markov switching model (MSM). Methods: This descriptive stu...