Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study
Objective: To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models and Markov switching model (MSM). Methods: This descriptive stu...
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Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f 2023-05-15T15:10:11+02:00 Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study Vahid Rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.4103/1995-7645.306739 https://doaj.org/article/352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f EN eng Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications http://www.apjtm.org/article.asp?issn=1995-7645;year=2021;volume=14;issue=2;spage=83;epage=93;aulast=Rahmanian https://doaj.org/toc/2352-4146 2352-4146 doi:10.4103/1995-7645.306739 https://doaj.org/article/352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine, Vol 14, Iss 2, Pp 83-93 (2021) leishmaniasis climate factor time series analysis forecasting iran Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.4103/1995-7645.306739 2022-12-30T22:08:30Z Objective: To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models and Markov switching model (MSM). Methods: This descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 49 364 parasitologically-confirmed cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province, located in the center of Iran from January 2000 to December 2019. The data were provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system, the meteorological organization of Isfahan province, and Iranian Space Agency for vegetation information. The SARIMA and MSM models were implemented to examine the environmental factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics. Results: The minimum relative humidity, maximum relative humidity, minimum wind speed, and maximum wind speed were significantly associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in different lags (P<0.05). Comparing SARIMA and MSM, Akaikes information criterion (AIC), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in MSM were much smaller than SARIMA models (MSM: AIC=0.95, MAPE=3.5%; SARIMA: AIC=158.93, MAPE:11.45%). Conclusions: SARIMA and MSM can be a useful tool for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province. Since cutaneous leishmaniasis falls into one of two states of epidemic and non-epidemic, the use of MSM (dynamic) is recommended, which can provide more information compared to models that use a single distribution for all observations (Box-Jenkins SARIMA model). Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Sarima ENVELOPE(29.040,29.040,69.037,69.037) Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 14 2 83 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
leishmaniasis climate factor time series analysis forecasting iran Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
spellingShingle |
leishmaniasis climate factor time series analysis forecasting iran Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Vahid Rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
topic_facet |
leishmaniasis climate factor time series analysis forecasting iran Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
description |
Objective: To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models and Markov switching model (MSM). Methods: This descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 49 364 parasitologically-confirmed cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province, located in the center of Iran from January 2000 to December 2019. The data were provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system, the meteorological organization of Isfahan province, and Iranian Space Agency for vegetation information. The SARIMA and MSM models were implemented to examine the environmental factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics. Results: The minimum relative humidity, maximum relative humidity, minimum wind speed, and maximum wind speed were significantly associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in different lags (P<0.05). Comparing SARIMA and MSM, Akaikes information criterion (AIC), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in MSM were much smaller than SARIMA models (MSM: AIC=0.95, MAPE=3.5%; SARIMA: AIC=158.93, MAPE:11.45%). Conclusions: SARIMA and MSM can be a useful tool for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province. Since cutaneous leishmaniasis falls into one of two states of epidemic and non-epidemic, the use of MSM (dynamic) is recommended, which can provide more information compared to models that use a single distribution for all observations (Box-Jenkins SARIMA model). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vahid Rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni |
author_facet |
Vahid Rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni |
author_sort |
Vahid Rahmanian |
title |
Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
title_short |
Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
title_full |
Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
title_fullStr |
Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study |
title_sort |
predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using sarima and markov switching models in isfahan, iran: a time-series study |
publisher |
Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.4103/1995-7645.306739 https://doaj.org/article/352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(29.040,29.040,69.037,69.037) |
geographic |
Arctic Sarima |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Sarima |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine, Vol 14, Iss 2, Pp 83-93 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.apjtm.org/article.asp?issn=1995-7645;year=2021;volume=14;issue=2;spage=83;epage=93;aulast=Rahmanian https://doaj.org/toc/2352-4146 2352-4146 doi:10.4103/1995-7645.306739 https://doaj.org/article/352289c592b94af8b66345c3a0a8d40f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4103/1995-7645.306739 |
container_title |
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
83 |
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1766341234527305728 |