The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy a...
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2024
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:342cb08a26c64fb7b50dc3e8ae330894 2024-09-15T17:53:37+00:00 The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales E. Bianco D. Iovino S. Masina S. Materia P. Ruggieri 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 https://doaj.org/article/342cb08a26c64fb7b50dc3e8ae330894 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2357/2024/tc-18-2357-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/342cb08a26c64fb7b50dc3e8ae330894 The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2357-2379 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:24Z In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer ( Q ml ) and in the 0–300 m layer ( Q 300 ), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Q ml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q 300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 18 5 2357 2379 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. Bianco D. Iovino S. Masina S. Materia P. Ruggieri The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer ( Q ml ) and in the 0–300 m layer ( Q 300 ), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Q ml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q 300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Bianco D. Iovino S. Masina S. Materia P. Ruggieri |
author_facet |
E. Bianco D. Iovino S. Masina S. Materia P. Ruggieri |
author_sort |
E. Bianco |
title |
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
title_short |
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
title_full |
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
title_fullStr |
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
title_sort |
role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 https://doaj.org/article/342cb08a26c64fb7b50dc3e8ae330894 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2357-2379 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2357/2024/tc-18-2357-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/342cb08a26c64fb7b50dc3e8ae330894 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2357 |
op_container_end_page |
2379 |
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1810429516811599872 |