Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
This study analyzes future climate for the Mediterranean region projected with the high-resolution coupled CM2.5 model, which incorporates a new and improved land model (LM3). The simulated climate changes suggest pronounced warming and drying over most of the region. However, the changes are distin...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:33867988241643e4af41eb00c89679e3 2023-05-15T17:33:40+02:00 Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors M. J. Barcikowska S. B. Kapnick L. Krishnamurty S. Russo A. Cherchi C. K. Folland 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 https://doaj.org/article/33867988241643e4af41eb00c89679e3 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/161/2020/esd-11-161-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/33867988241643e4af41eb00c89679e3 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 161-181 (2020) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 2022-12-31T12:27:36Z This study analyzes future climate for the Mediterranean region projected with the high-resolution coupled CM2.5 model, which incorporates a new and improved land model (LM3). The simulated climate changes suggest pronounced warming and drying over most of the region. However, the changes are distinctly smaller than those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In addition, the changes over much of southeast and central Europe indicate very modest warming compared to the CMIP5 projections and also a tendency toward wetter conditions. These differences indicate a possible role of factors such as land surface–atmospheric interactions in these regions. Our analysis also highlights the importance of correctly projecting the magnitude of changes in the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, which has the capacity to partly offset anthropogenic warming and drying over the western and central Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the projections suggest a decreasing influence of local atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections in maintaining the regional temperature and precipitation balance, in particular over arid regions like the eastern and southern Mediterranean, which show a local maximum of warming and drying. The intensification of the heat low in these regions rather suggests an increasing influence of warming land surface on the local surface atmospheric circulation and progressing desertification. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Warming Land ENVELOPE(-52.000,-52.000,81.617,81.617) Earth System Dynamics 11 1 161 181 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 M. J. Barcikowska S. B. Kapnick L. Krishnamurty S. Russo A. Cherchi C. K. Folland Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
This study analyzes future climate for the Mediterranean region projected with the high-resolution coupled CM2.5 model, which incorporates a new and improved land model (LM3). The simulated climate changes suggest pronounced warming and drying over most of the region. However, the changes are distinctly smaller than those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In addition, the changes over much of southeast and central Europe indicate very modest warming compared to the CMIP5 projections and also a tendency toward wetter conditions. These differences indicate a possible role of factors such as land surface–atmospheric interactions in these regions. Our analysis also highlights the importance of correctly projecting the magnitude of changes in the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, which has the capacity to partly offset anthropogenic warming and drying over the western and central Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the projections suggest a decreasing influence of local atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections in maintaining the regional temperature and precipitation balance, in particular over arid regions like the eastern and southern Mediterranean, which show a local maximum of warming and drying. The intensification of the heat low in these regions rather suggests an increasing influence of warming land surface on the local surface atmospheric circulation and progressing desertification. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. J. Barcikowska S. B. Kapnick L. Krishnamurty S. Russo A. Cherchi C. K. Folland |
author_facet |
M. J. Barcikowska S. B. Kapnick L. Krishnamurty S. Russo A. Cherchi C. K. Folland |
author_sort |
M. J. Barcikowska |
title |
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
title_short |
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
title_full |
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
title_fullStr |
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
title_sort |
changes in the future summer mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 https://doaj.org/article/33867988241643e4af41eb00c89679e3 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-52.000,-52.000,81.617,81.617) |
geographic |
Warming Land |
geographic_facet |
Warming Land |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 161-181 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/161/2020/esd-11-161-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/33867988241643e4af41eb00c89679e3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
161 |
op_container_end_page |
181 |
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1766132242384420864 |