Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method
Abstract The relative contributions of external forcing and internal processes to the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) are still under debate. Here, the efficacy of the commonly‐used “global temperature residual method” for isolating the inte...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:3294af9176bd454d8856f523ff87ee1b 2024-09-09T19:57:11+00:00 Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method Clara Deser Adam S. Phillips 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/article/3294af9176bd454d8856f523ff87ee1b EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/article/3294af9176bd454d8856f523ff87ee1b Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) internal variability Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate model Large Ensembles Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract The relative contributions of external forcing and internal processes to the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) are still under debate. Here, the efficacy of the commonly‐used “global temperature residual method” for isolating the internal component of AMV is investigated by means of model Large Ensembles where the truth is known a priori. In this method, local sea surface temperature variability associated with global‐mean temperature (G) is removed via linear regression, and the residuals regressed upon the North Atlantic residual timeseries. We show that this method introduces spurious connections over the Indo‐Pacific due to the fact that G in any single realization includes both external and internal components: the latter dominated by influences from Pacific Decadal Variability independent of AMV. This methodological shortcoming can be overcome by using the forced component of G in the residual method applied to individual model realizations and to observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Geophysical Research Letters 50 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
internal variability Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate model Large Ensembles Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
internal variability Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate model Large Ensembles Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Clara Deser Adam S. Phillips Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
topic_facet |
internal variability Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate model Large Ensembles Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract The relative contributions of external forcing and internal processes to the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) are still under debate. Here, the efficacy of the commonly‐used “global temperature residual method” for isolating the internal component of AMV is investigated by means of model Large Ensembles where the truth is known a priori. In this method, local sea surface temperature variability associated with global‐mean temperature (G) is removed via linear regression, and the residuals regressed upon the North Atlantic residual timeseries. We show that this method introduces spurious connections over the Indo‐Pacific due to the fact that G in any single realization includes both external and internal components: the latter dominated by influences from Pacific Decadal Variability independent of AMV. This methodological shortcoming can be overcome by using the forced component of G in the residual method applied to individual model realizations and to observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Clara Deser Adam S. Phillips |
author_facet |
Clara Deser Adam S. Phillips |
author_sort |
Clara Deser |
title |
Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
title_short |
Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
title_full |
Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
title_fullStr |
Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method |
title_sort |
spurious indo‐pacific connections to internal atlantic multidecadal variability introduced by the global temperature residual method |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/article/3294af9176bd454d8856f523ff87ee1b |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100574 https://doaj.org/article/3294af9176bd454d8856f523ff87ee1b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1809928074812194816 |