Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study
Abstract Background Global efforts to address the burden of malaria have stagnated in recent years with malaria cases beginning to rise. Substandard and falsified anti-malarial treatments contribute to this stagnation. Poor quality anti-malarials directly affect health outcomes by increasing malaria...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:328db1c828ea4ecbb912fcc7663a0196 2023-05-15T15:15:36+02:00 Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study Sachiko Ozawa Daniel R. Evans Colleen R. Higgins Sarah K. Laing Phyllis Awor 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 https://doaj.org/article/328db1c828ea4ecbb912fcc7663a0196 EN eng BMC http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/328db1c828ea4ecbb912fcc7663a0196 Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2019) Antimalarial Quality Substandard Falsified Agent-based model Uganda Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 2022-12-31T06:53:05Z Abstract Background Global efforts to address the burden of malaria have stagnated in recent years with malaria cases beginning to rise. Substandard and falsified anti-malarial treatments contribute to this stagnation. Poor quality anti-malarials directly affect health outcomes by increasing malaria morbidity and mortality, as well as threaten the effectiveness of treatment by contributing to artemisinin resistance. Research to assess the scope and impact of poor quality anti-malarials is essential to raise awareness and allocate resources to improve the quality of treatment. A probabilistic agent-based model was developed to provide country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of poor quality anti-malarials on paediatric malaria. This paper presents the methodology and case study of the Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI) model developed and applied to Uganda. Results The total annual economic impact of malaria in Ugandan children under age five was estimated at US$614 million. Among children who sought medical care, the total economic impact was estimated at $403 million, including $57.7 million in direct costs. Substandard and falsified anti-malarials were a significant contributor to this annual burden, accounting for $31 million (8% of care-seeking children) in total economic impact involving $5.2 million in direct costs. Further, 9% of malaria deaths relating to cases seeking treatment were attributable to poor quality anti-malarials. In the event of widespread artemisinin resistance in Uganda, we simulated a 12% yearly increase in costs associated with paediatric malaria cases that sought care, inflicting $48.5 million in additional economic impact annually. Conclusions Improving the quality of treatment is essential to combat the burden of malaria and prevent the development of drug resistance. The SAFARI model provides country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials to inform governments, policy makers, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 18 1 |
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Open Polar |
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op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antimalarial Quality Substandard Falsified Agent-based model Uganda Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Antimalarial Quality Substandard Falsified Agent-based model Uganda Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Sachiko Ozawa Daniel R. Evans Colleen R. Higgins Sarah K. Laing Phyllis Awor Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
topic_facet |
Antimalarial Quality Substandard Falsified Agent-based model Uganda Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Global efforts to address the burden of malaria have stagnated in recent years with malaria cases beginning to rise. Substandard and falsified anti-malarial treatments contribute to this stagnation. Poor quality anti-malarials directly affect health outcomes by increasing malaria morbidity and mortality, as well as threaten the effectiveness of treatment by contributing to artemisinin resistance. Research to assess the scope and impact of poor quality anti-malarials is essential to raise awareness and allocate resources to improve the quality of treatment. A probabilistic agent-based model was developed to provide country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of poor quality anti-malarials on paediatric malaria. This paper presents the methodology and case study of the Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI) model developed and applied to Uganda. Results The total annual economic impact of malaria in Ugandan children under age five was estimated at US$614 million. Among children who sought medical care, the total economic impact was estimated at $403 million, including $57.7 million in direct costs. Substandard and falsified anti-malarials were a significant contributor to this annual burden, accounting for $31 million (8% of care-seeking children) in total economic impact involving $5.2 million in direct costs. Further, 9% of malaria deaths relating to cases seeking treatment were attributable to poor quality anti-malarials. In the event of widespread artemisinin resistance in Uganda, we simulated a 12% yearly increase in costs associated with paediatric malaria cases that sought care, inflicting $48.5 million in additional economic impact annually. Conclusions Improving the quality of treatment is essential to combat the burden of malaria and prevent the development of drug resistance. The SAFARI model provides country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials to inform governments, policy makers, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sachiko Ozawa Daniel R. Evans Colleen R. Higgins Sarah K. Laing Phyllis Awor |
author_facet |
Sachiko Ozawa Daniel R. Evans Colleen R. Higgins Sarah K. Laing Phyllis Awor |
author_sort |
Sachiko Ozawa |
title |
Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
title_short |
Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
title_full |
Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
title_fullStr |
Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study |
title_sort |
development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: uganda case study |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 https://doaj.org/article/328db1c828ea4ecbb912fcc7663a0196 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/328db1c828ea4ecbb912fcc7663a0196 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2628-3 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766345961597042688 |