Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios
The accelerated decline in Arctic sea ice in recent decades suggests the possibility of future trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with significant implications for the global economy. We present a projection of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping activities duri...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:31b3b9dfc3f747c7889abc0167600e87 2023-09-05T13:16:12+02:00 Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios Ting Wei Qing Yan Wei Qi Minghu Ding Chuya Wang 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 https://doaj.org/article/31b3b9dfc3f747c7889abc0167600e87 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/31b3b9dfc3f747c7889abc0167600e87 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 10, p 104079 (2020) Arctic sea ice shipping routes climate projection CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 2023-08-13T00:37:16Z The accelerated decline in Arctic sea ice in recent decades suggests the possibility of future trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with significant implications for the global economy. We present a projection of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping activities during the 21st century based on 16 CMIP6 models calibrated to remove spatial biases. The multimodel ensemble mean shows that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free in September by 2076 and 2055 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, whereas the extent of sea ice is >2 × 10 ^6 km ^2 throughout the 21st century under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. The Arctic sea ice in September thins over time, leading to a reduction in the area with an ice thickness >120 cm (i.e. the threshold over which sea ice is inaccessible to Type A vessels) by 34–100% by the late 21st century (2086–2100) under the three scenarios. Given the declines in the extent and thickness of sea ice, the most commonly traversed route along the North West Passage tends to migrate from the southern to the northern route during the 21st century. The optimum route along the Northern Sea Route shifts northward with time, with the Transpolar Sea Route becoming available. Quantitatively, the maritime accessibility to Type A vessels via the Transpolar Sea Route increases from ∼6.7, 4.2 and 2.1% in 2021–2035 to 14.7, 29.2 and 67.5% in 2086–2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The season for trans-Arctic shipping extends from 5 to ∼7.5 (9) months by the late 21st century under the SSP1-2.6 (SSP2-4.5) scenario and the Arctic becomes navigable all year round under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These findings may aid in developing strategic planning by governments for the Arctic and providing strategic advice for the global maritime industry. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North West Passage Northern Sea Route Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 15 10 104079 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice shipping routes climate projection CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice shipping routes climate projection CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Ting Wei Qing Yan Wei Qi Minghu Ding Chuya Wang Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice shipping routes climate projection CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The accelerated decline in Arctic sea ice in recent decades suggests the possibility of future trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with significant implications for the global economy. We present a projection of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping activities during the 21st century based on 16 CMIP6 models calibrated to remove spatial biases. The multimodel ensemble mean shows that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free in September by 2076 and 2055 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, whereas the extent of sea ice is >2 × 10 ^6 km ^2 throughout the 21st century under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. The Arctic sea ice in September thins over time, leading to a reduction in the area with an ice thickness >120 cm (i.e. the threshold over which sea ice is inaccessible to Type A vessels) by 34–100% by the late 21st century (2086–2100) under the three scenarios. Given the declines in the extent and thickness of sea ice, the most commonly traversed route along the North West Passage tends to migrate from the southern to the northern route during the 21st century. The optimum route along the Northern Sea Route shifts northward with time, with the Transpolar Sea Route becoming available. Quantitatively, the maritime accessibility to Type A vessels via the Transpolar Sea Route increases from ∼6.7, 4.2 and 2.1% in 2021–2035 to 14.7, 29.2 and 67.5% in 2086–2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The season for trans-Arctic shipping extends from 5 to ∼7.5 (9) months by the late 21st century under the SSP1-2.6 (SSP2-4.5) scenario and the Arctic becomes navigable all year round under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These findings may aid in developing strategic planning by governments for the Arctic and providing strategic advice for the global maritime industry. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ting Wei Qing Yan Wei Qi Minghu Ding Chuya Wang |
author_facet |
Ting Wei Qing Yan Wei Qi Minghu Ding Chuya Wang |
author_sort |
Ting Wei |
title |
Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
title_short |
Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
title_full |
Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
title_sort |
projections of arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using cmip6 forcing scenarios |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 https://doaj.org/article/31b3b9dfc3f747c7889abc0167600e87 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North West Passage Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North West Passage Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 10, p 104079 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/31b3b9dfc3f747c7889abc0167600e87 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104079 |
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1776197875260194816 |