Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations
What causes cycles in oceanic oscillations, and is there a change in the characteristics of oscillations in around 1950? Characteristics of oceanic cycles and their sources are important for climate predictability. We here compare cycles generated in a simple model with observed oceanic cycles in th...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:31801e3208004a1ea09049e9576451d7 2023-05-15T17:29:01+02:00 Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations Knut L. Seip Øyvind Grøn 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060077 https://doaj.org/article/31801e3208004a1ea09049e9576451d7 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/6/77 https://doaj.org/toc/2225-1154 2225-1154 doi:10.3390/cli7060077 https://doaj.org/article/31801e3208004a1ea09049e9576451d7 Climate, Vol 7, Iss 6, p 77 (2019) cycle time El Niño Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index minimal model leading relations Science Q article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060077 2022-12-31T03:51:21Z What causes cycles in oceanic oscillations, and is there a change in the characteristics of oscillations in around 1950? Characteristics of oceanic cycles and their sources are important for climate predictability. We here compare cycles generated in a simple model with observed oceanic cycles in the great oceans: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the model, we let a stochastic movement in one oceanic oscillation cause a similar but lagging movement in another oceanic oscillation. The two interacting oscillations show distinct cycle lengths depending upon how strongly one oscillation creates lagging cycles in the other. The model and observations both show cycles around two to six, 13 to 16, 22 to 23, and 31 to 32 years. The ultimate cause for the distinct cycles is atmospheric and oceanic “bridges” that connect the ocean basins, but the distinct pattern in cycle lengths is determined by properties of statistical distributions. We found no differences in the leading or lagging strength between well separated basins (the North Atlantic and the Pacific) and overlapping ocean basins (both in the Pacific). The cyclic pattern before 1950 appears to be different from the cyclic pattern after 1950. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Climate 7 6 77 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
cycle time El Niño Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index minimal model leading relations Science Q |
spellingShingle |
cycle time El Niño Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index minimal model leading relations Science Q Knut L. Seip Øyvind Grøn Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
topic_facet |
cycle time El Niño Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index minimal model leading relations Science Q |
description |
What causes cycles in oceanic oscillations, and is there a change in the characteristics of oscillations in around 1950? Characteristics of oceanic cycles and their sources are important for climate predictability. We here compare cycles generated in a simple model with observed oceanic cycles in the great oceans: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the model, we let a stochastic movement in one oceanic oscillation cause a similar but lagging movement in another oceanic oscillation. The two interacting oscillations show distinct cycle lengths depending upon how strongly one oscillation creates lagging cycles in the other. The model and observations both show cycles around two to six, 13 to 16, 22 to 23, and 31 to 32 years. The ultimate cause for the distinct cycles is atmospheric and oceanic “bridges” that connect the ocean basins, but the distinct pattern in cycle lengths is determined by properties of statistical distributions. We found no differences in the leading or lagging strength between well separated basins (the North Atlantic and the Pacific) and overlapping ocean basins (both in the Pacific). The cyclic pattern before 1950 appears to be different from the cyclic pattern after 1950. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Knut L. Seip Øyvind Grøn |
author_facet |
Knut L. Seip Øyvind Grøn |
author_sort |
Knut L. Seip |
title |
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
title_short |
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
title_full |
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics May Explain Cycles in Oceanic Oscillations |
title_sort |
atmospheric and ocean dynamics may explain cycles in oceanic oscillations |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060077 https://doaj.org/article/31801e3208004a1ea09049e9576451d7 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Pacific Soi |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Soi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate, Vol 7, Iss 6, p 77 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/6/77 https://doaj.org/toc/2225-1154 2225-1154 doi:10.3390/cli7060077 https://doaj.org/article/31801e3208004a1ea09049e9576451d7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060077 |
container_title |
Climate |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
77 |
_version_ |
1766122327615995904 |