The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1
Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:30d84b101f6046718f86f1033d6bc155 2023-05-15T14:38:45+02:00 The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 J. J. Day S. Tietsche M. Collins H. F. Goessling V. Guemas A. Guillory W. J. Hurlin M. Ishii S. P. E. Keeley D. Matei R. Msadek M. Sigmond H. Tatebe E. Hawkins 2016-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 https://doaj.org/article/30d84b101f6046718f86f1033d6bc155 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2255/2016/gmd-9-2255-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 1991-959X 1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 https://doaj.org/article/30d84b101f6046718f86f1033d6bc155 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2255-2270 (2016) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 2022-12-31T01:04:15Z Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre), an assessment of Arctic sea ice extent and volume predictability estimates in these models, and an investigation into to what extent predictability is dependent on the initial state. The inclusion of additional models expands the range of sea ice volume and extent predictability estimates, demonstrating that there is model diversity in the potential to make seasonal-to-interannual timescale predictions. We also investigate whether sea ice forecasts started from extreme high and low sea ice initial states exhibit higher levels of potential predictability than forecasts started from close to the models' mean state, and find that the result depends on the metric. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, we describe the archived data here so that others can use this data set to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 9 6 2255 2270 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 J. J. Day S. Tietsche M. Collins H. F. Goessling V. Guemas A. Guillory W. J. Hurlin M. Ishii S. P. E. Keeley D. Matei R. Msadek M. Sigmond H. Tatebe E. Hawkins The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre), an assessment of Arctic sea ice extent and volume predictability estimates in these models, and an investigation into to what extent predictability is dependent on the initial state. The inclusion of additional models expands the range of sea ice volume and extent predictability estimates, demonstrating that there is model diversity in the potential to make seasonal-to-interannual timescale predictions. We also investigate whether sea ice forecasts started from extreme high and low sea ice initial states exhibit higher levels of potential predictability than forecasts started from close to the models' mean state, and find that the result depends on the metric. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, we describe the archived data here so that others can use this data set to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. J. Day S. Tietsche M. Collins H. F. Goessling V. Guemas A. Guillory W. J. Hurlin M. Ishii S. P. E. Keeley D. Matei R. Msadek M. Sigmond H. Tatebe E. Hawkins |
author_facet |
J. J. Day S. Tietsche M. Collins H. F. Goessling V. Guemas A. Guillory W. J. Hurlin M. Ishii S. P. E. Keeley D. Matei R. Msadek M. Sigmond H. Tatebe E. Hawkins |
author_sort |
J. J. Day |
title |
The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
title_short |
The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
title_full |
The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
title_fullStr |
The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1 |
title_sort |
arctic predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales (apposite) data set version 1 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 https://doaj.org/article/30d84b101f6046718f86f1033d6bc155 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2255-2270 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2255/2016/gmd-9-2255-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 1991-959X 1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 https://doaj.org/article/30d84b101f6046718f86f1033d6bc155 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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9 |
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6 |
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2255 |
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2270 |
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