Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019
Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall is expected to increase in cold areas, i.e., at high latitudes and/or high elevation, and to decrease in warmer areas, i.e., at mid-latitudes and low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasting patterns of change and their precise...
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Copernicus Publications
2021
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:308a29fab2f845959b5849980d062dff 2023-05-15T18:32:27+02:00 Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 E. Le Roux G. Evin N. Eckert J. Blanchet S. Morin 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 https://doaj.org/article/308a29fab2f845959b5849980d062dff EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4335/2021/tc-15-4335-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/308a29fab2f845959b5849980d062dff The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 4335-4356 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 2022-12-31T06:08:56Z Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall is expected to increase in cold areas, i.e., at high latitudes and/or high elevation, and to decrease in warmer areas, i.e., at mid-latitudes and low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasting patterns of change and their precise relations to elevation at the scale of a given mountain range remain poorly known. This study analyzes annual maxima of daily snowfall based on the SAFRAN reanalysis spanning the time period 1959–2019 and provided within 23 massifs in the French Alps every 300 m of elevation. We estimate temporal trends in 100- year return levels with non-stationary extreme value models that depend on both elevation and time. Specifically, for each massif and four elevation ranges (below 1000, 1000–2000, 2000–3000, and above 3000 m ), temporal trends are estimated with the best extreme value models selected on the basis of the Akaike information criterion. Our results show that a majority of trends are decreasing below 2000 m and increasing above 2000 m . Quantitatively, we find an increase in 100- year return levels between 1959 and 2019 equal to +23 % ( <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M9" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>+</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">32</mn><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="55pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="031292d0c0966987e722c7e1fb0272ca"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-15-4335-2021-ie00001.svg" width="55pt" height="15pt" ... Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 15 9 4335 4356 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. Le Roux G. Evin N. Eckert J. Blanchet S. Morin Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall is expected to increase in cold areas, i.e., at high latitudes and/or high elevation, and to decrease in warmer areas, i.e., at mid-latitudes and low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasting patterns of change and their precise relations to elevation at the scale of a given mountain range remain poorly known. This study analyzes annual maxima of daily snowfall based on the SAFRAN reanalysis spanning the time period 1959–2019 and provided within 23 massifs in the French Alps every 300 m of elevation. We estimate temporal trends in 100- year return levels with non-stationary extreme value models that depend on both elevation and time. Specifically, for each massif and four elevation ranges (below 1000, 1000–2000, 2000–3000, and above 3000 m ), temporal trends are estimated with the best extreme value models selected on the basis of the Akaike information criterion. Our results show that a majority of trends are decreasing below 2000 m and increasing above 2000 m . Quantitatively, we find an increase in 100- year return levels between 1959 and 2019 equal to +23 % ( <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M9" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>+</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">32</mn><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="55pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="031292d0c0966987e722c7e1fb0272ca"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-15-4335-2021-ie00001.svg" width="55pt" height="15pt" ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Le Roux G. Evin N. Eckert J. Blanchet S. Morin |
author_facet |
E. Le Roux G. Evin N. Eckert J. Blanchet S. Morin |
author_sort |
E. Le Roux |
title |
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
title_short |
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
title_full |
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
title_fullStr |
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 |
title_sort |
elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the french alps from 1959 to 2019 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 https://doaj.org/article/308a29fab2f845959b5849980d062dff |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 4335-4356 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/4335/2021/tc-15-4335-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/308a29fab2f845959b5849980d062dff |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4335 |
op_container_end_page |
4356 |
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1766216572251144192 |